Kilimokwanza.org Report 52, Dec, 2025

The Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania (SAGCOT) represents one of Africa’s most ambitious and sustained experiments in public-private partnership (PPP) for agricultural transformation. Initiated in 2010, the SAGCOT model has undergone a significant strategic evolution, moving from a broad, geographically-based development approach to a highly focused, value-chain-centric strategy. This report provides an exhaustive analysis of this evolution, charting SAGCOT’s journey through three distinct phases and examining the partnership instruments—specifically “compacts” and “Strategic Partnerships”—that have been central to its operational methodology.

The analysis begins by dissecting SAGCOT’s foundational architecture, born from a unique confluence of international vision at the World Economic Forum and domestic political will under Tanzania’s Kilimo Kwanza policy. The establishment of the SAGCOT Centre Ltd. (SCL) as a neutral, “honest broker” was a critical institutional innovation, creating a platform to convene government, private sector, farmer organizations, and civil society. The initial phase of implementation (pre-2021) was characterized by a “cluster-centric” approach, focusing on concentrating investment and addressing cross-cutting infrastructure and policy constraints within defined geographic zones like Ihemi and Mbarali. While this approach yielded successes, such as facilitating essential infrastructure for the tea sector, it also revealed limitations in its ability to address the granular, commodity-specific bottlenecks that constrain commercial value chains.

Recognizing these limitations, SAGCOT executed a strategic pivot in its second phase (2021-2023), shifting its focus to the formation of commodity-specific coalitions. This report details how this value-chain-deepening approach enabled more precise and impactful interventions. Through detailed case studies of the Soybean, Avocado, Poultry, and Dairy partnerships, the analysis demonstrates how tailored “commodity compacts” functioned as powerful de-risking mechanisms. These compacts aligned diverse stakeholders around shared objectives, resolving critical issues from seed availability and market access to advocating for specific policy reforms, such as tax adjustments on key inputs and the maintenance of protective tariffs.

The demonstrated success of this evolved, commodity-focused partnership model ultimately provided the proof of concept for a national scale-up. In its third and current phase (2024 onwards), the “SAGCOT way” has been institutionalized as the foundational blueprint for Tanzania’s national agricultural strategy. The initiative has transitioned into the Agricultural Growth Corridors of Tanzania (AGCOT), designated as Flagship No. 7 of the nation’s ambitious Agriculture Master Plan 2050. This transition elevates the model from a regional project to the central delivery platform for achieving national goals of food security, export growth, and rural prosperity, with an ultimate ambition of contributing to a $100 billion agricultural GDP by 2050.

This report concludes that the core innovation of the SAGCOT model lies not in the concept of partnership itself, but in the development of a disciplined, repeatable mechanism—the commodity compact—for aligning public policy, private capital, and smallholder ambition to solve complex, systemic problems at scale. However, the national replication of this model through AGCOT is not without significant risks. Success will depend on the ability to replicate the deep, context-specific process of stakeholder consultation and adaptive management that defined SAGCOT’s success, rather than simply copying its structure. Key challenges related to land governance, climate resilience, and sustainable financing must be proactively addressed to realize the model’s full transformative potential for Tanzania and to serve as a paradigm for agricultural development across the continent.

1. The Genesis of a Partnership Model: SAGCOT’s Foundational Architecture

The emergence of the Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania (SAGCOT) was not a singular event but the product of a powerful convergence of global development thinking and national political ambition. Its foundational architecture was meticulously designed to create a durable, multi-stakeholder platform capable of navigating the complexities of agricultural investment in Tanzania. The establishment of the SAGCOT Centre Ltd. (SCL) as an independent coordinating body was the central institutional innovation, creating a nexus for public-private collaboration governed by a clear set of principles.

1.1. From Global Dialogue to National Vision: The Origins of SAGCOT

SAGCOT’s conception on the international stage provided it with immediate global prominence and a powerful network of supporters. It was formally initiated at the World Economic Forum (WEF) Africa Summit held in Dar es Salaam in 2010, positioning it as a pioneering public-private partnership (PPP) for African agriculture.¹ This high-profile launch, supported by the WEF’s New Vision for Agriculture Initiative, framed SAGCOT as a model for catalyzing private sector investment to address systemic development challenges.⁵

This international endorsement was critically matched by deep-seated domestic political ownership. The initiative was championed by the strong personal commitment of then-President Jakaya Kikwete and was explicitly designed as an operational component of Tanzania’s overarching Kilimo Kwanza (Agriculture First) policy.⁶ This strategic linkage ensured that SAGCOT was not an externally imposed project but an integral part of a locally defined and led vision for national development.⁵ This dual foundation—international validation combined with national policy alignment—endowed the initiative with a unique form of legitimacy that would prove essential for its long-term survival and relevance across different political administrations.⁹

The initial goals set for the 20-year initiative (2010-2030) were audacious. The SAGCOT blueprint aimed to attract over $3.5 billion in investments, with a target of $2.1 billion from the private sector and $1.3 billion from the public sector.⁷ The intended impact was transformative: to triple the region’s agricultural output, increase annual farming revenues by more than $1.2 billion, create 420,000 new jobs, and establish southern Tanzania as a regional food exporter, lifting millions out of poverty in the process.¹⁰

1.2. The SAGCOT Centre Ltd. (SCL): Architecting a Multi-Stakeholder Platform

To translate this ambitious vision into reality, a unique institutional vehicle was created: the SAGCOT Centre Ltd. (SCL). Established as a neutral, non-profit coordination unit, SCL was designed to function as the operational heart of the initiative.⁶ Its legal status as a special purpose vehicle (SPV) allowed it to receive funding from multiple sources, maintain a degree of independence from both government and private interests, and operate with a long-term strategic horizon beyond typical project cycles.¹²

SCL’s core mandate was to act as an “honest broker” and “partnership catalyst”.⁴ Its primary role was not to implement projects directly but to convene, coordinate, and facilitate collaboration among the vast and diverse ecosystem of agricultural stakeholders. This included government ministries and agencies, local and international private agribusiness companies, farmer organizations, civil society organizations (CSOs), research institutions, and development partners.³ The partnership grew rapidly, expanding from an initial group of 20 private companies and three umbrella organizations to a network encompassing over 60 private companies and 30 umbrella organizations, demonstrating the strong demand for such a coordinating platform.⁷

The functions of SCL were multifaceted. It was tasked with promoting investment opportunities, brokering relationships between investors and smallholders, facilitating policy dialogue to resolve regulatory bottlenecks, and monitoring the overall progress of the partnership against its economic, social, and environmental objectives.⁴ The design of SCL as an independent but deeply connected entity allowed it to function as a systemic shock absorber. In a context of shifting political priorities and a sometimes challenging business environment, SCL provided a stable and trusted platform for continuous dialogue, insulating long-term strategic goals from short-term political volatility.¹²

1.3. Core Principles: Establishing the Rules of Engagement for Public-Private Collaboration

The SAGCOT partnership was not an unconditional coalition; it was governed by a set of core principles that established clear rules of engagement for all partners, particularly for private sector investors. These principles were designed to ensure that the pursuit of commercial growth was inextricably linked to inclusive development and environmental sustainability.

Three non-negotiable conditions were established for private sector participation:

1. Focus on Food and Nutrition: Investments had to be directed towards food and nutrition value chains, aligning commercial activities with national food security goals.⁷
2. Inclusion of Smallholder Farmers: Agribusinesses were required to incorporate small-scale farmers into their operations and business models, ensuring that the benefits of commercialization were shared broadly.⁴
3. Commitment to Sustainability: Partners had to demonstrate a commitment to environmentally sustainable practices, protecting the natural resource base upon which agriculture depends.⁷

These principles were further codified in the SAGCOT “Greenprint,” a strategic framework developed to refine the original investment blueprint.¹⁰ The Greenprint moved beyond simple environmental and social safeguards, articulating a proactive vision for “Agriculture Green Growth” (AGG). This approach promoted the adoption of climate-resilient practices, conservation agriculture, efficient water use, and the conservation of biodiversity within the corridor’s productive landscapes.¹⁰ By embedding these principles into the partnership’s DNA, SAGCOT aimed to “leapfrog” over conventional, extractive agricultural models and demonstrate that large-scale commercial agriculture could be a force for both economic prosperity and ecological stewardship.

2. Phase I – The Cluster-Centric Approach: Building Geographic Foundations (Pre-2021)

In its initial phase of implementation, the SAGCOT initiative adopted a geographically-focused strategy centered on the development of agricultural “clusters.” This approach was designed to concentrate resources, catalyze investment, and address systemic constraints within defined, high-potential zones. While this model laid a critical foundation and achieved notable early successes, particularly in resolving large-scale infrastructure bottlenecks, it also encountered significant challenges that revealed the limitations of a purely geographic focus and ultimately necessitated a strategic evolution.

2.1. The Rationale for Geographic Clustering: Concentrating Investment and Infrastructure

The cluster approach was a core element of the original SAGCOT Investment Blueprint.⁶ The rationale was to overcome the fragmented and uncoordinated nature of agricultural development by creating geographic hubs of intense economic activity. By focusing public and private investment in specific zones, the model aimed to generate economies of scale, foster synergies between different actors, and justify major public investments in shared infrastructure and support services.³

The blueprint identified six priority clusters along the corridor: Ihemi (covering the Iringa and Njombe regions), Mbarali (Mbeya and Songwe), Kilombero (Morogoro), Ludewa, Rufiji, and Sumbawanga.³ The strategy was to operationalize these clusters sequentially, starting with the Ihemi Cluster, to derive lessons that could inform the rollout of subsequent clusters.³ The cluster model was envisioned as a mechanism to connect small, medium, and large-scale farmers, enabling them to share the benefits of improved infrastructure, market access, and technology.³ This geographic concentration was intended to make the corridor’s vast potential tangible and provide concrete entry points for prospective investors.⁵

2.2. Early Implementation and Successes

The primary instrument for collaboration in this initial phase was the “Cluster Compact.” These were broad agreements designed to secure commitment from a wide range of stakeholders—including local and central government, private companies, and development partners—for a suite of cross-cutting interventions within a specific geographic area. The initial emphasis was on tackling shared, systemic problems that affected multiple value chains simultaneously.

This approach yielded tangible successes, particularly in areas where public investment and high-level policy coordination were the primary levers for change. SCL’s policy network proved effective at identifying and elevating infrastructure and policy constraints identified by partners in the clusters. A prime example of this success was within the Tea Strategic Partnership. Partners identified inadequate electricity supply as a major impediment to processing capacity. Through SCL’s coordination, this issue was channeled to high-level policy working groups, resulting in the successful connection of reliable electricity to the Njombe Tea Factory. This intervention directly improved the viability of the tea value chain in the Ihemi cluster.

The cluster consultations also served as a crucial diagnostic tool, enabling SAGCOT and its partners to identify and prioritize key value chains for development within each region. In the Ihemi cluster, for instance, this process highlighted the potential of Tomato, Potato, Soya, Dairy, and Tea, laying the groundwork for more targeted interventions in the future.¹²

2.3. Systemic Challenges of the Broad Cluster Model

Despite these successes, the cluster-centric model faced inherent limitations that became more apparent over time. The model risked falling into an “infrastructure trap.” It was highly effective at addressing large-scale, “horizontal” issues like roads and electricity, which are primarily the domain of public works. However, it proved less agile and effective at catalyzing the complex, “vertical” coordination required to unblock bottlenecks within a specific commodity value chain. Resolving issues like seed quality, farmer credit, and off-take agreements required the precise alignment of dozens of specialized private actors, a task for which the broad, multi-value chain Cluster Compact was often too blunt an instrument.

The vulnerability of this approach was starkly illustrated by the experience in the Mbarali Cluster. By 2018, the cluster had expanded its focus to six priority value chains, including Rice and Sunflower.¹⁹ However, the formal development of the overarching Mbarali Cluster Compact was put on hold in 2019 due to budgetary hurdles. This stalling was not merely a funding issue; it was symptomatic of the model’s complexity. Securing and coordinating the necessary financial and operational commitments to advance multiple, diverse value chains simultaneously under a single compact proved exceedingly difficult and susceptible to disruption.

Furthermore, this initial phase attracted broader critiques. Some analyses suggested that the early emphasis was on attracting large-scale agribusiness, with genuine smallholder inclusion being a secondary concern, though this focus evolved over time.²⁰ The ambitious plans for agricultural expansion also raised significant concerns about pressure on natural resources, particularly water, and the potential for land-use conflicts and environmental degradation in ecologically sensitive areas like the Kilombero Valley.¹

Ultimately, the cluster phase is best understood not as a flawed strategy but as a necessary, if insufficient, foundational step. It successfully established the physical and institutional “scaffolding” for the entire initiative. It mapped the agricultural landscape, identified key regional stakeholders, built crucial relationships with local governments, and fostered a baseline of trust among partners. This foundational work, though challenging, created the essential preconditions upon which the more agile and effective commodity-specific partnerships of the next phase could be rapidly constructed. The evolution was a logical progression from a macro-level, geographic focus to a more targeted, micro-level commercial focus.

3. Phase II – The Strategic Pivot to Value Chains: Deepening Commodity-Specific Impact (2021-2023)

The period from 2021 marked a critical strategic pivot in SAGCOT’s operational methodology. Learning from the limitations of the broad cluster-based approach, SCL and its partners shifted to a more targeted, “vertical” strategy focused on formalizing and intensifying commodity-specific partnerships. This evolution from geographic scope to value chain depth allowed for more precise, agile, and impactful interventions, enabling coalitions of stakeholders to resolve the unique bottlenecks hindering the growth of individual commodities. This phase demonstrated the power of the compact model when applied with surgical precision, yielding significant successes in production, market access, and policy advocacy.

3.1. Rationale for the Shift: From Geographic Scope to Value Chain Depth

The move towards a commodity-centric approach was a deliberate strategic adaptation. While the cluster model had been effective for addressing shared infrastructure, it was less suited to tackling the highly specific commercial, technical, and logistical challenges inherent in different value chains. A potato farmer’s most pressing need might be access to certified seed and cold storage, while a dairy farmer’s primary challenge could be milk collection logistics and animal genetics. A single, overarching cluster compact could not effectively address this diversity of needs.

The new strategy, therefore, focused on building dedicated coalitions around single value chains. This allowed SCL to convene a tailored set of stakeholders—from input suppliers and researchers to processors, financiers, and policymakers—all with a direct interest in the success of a particular commodity. This focused approach enabled the development of highly specific “commodity compacts” and Strategic Partnerships designed to deliver end-to-end solutions. The period from 2021 onwards saw a surge in this activity, with formal partnerships being developed across all major priority value chains, including Soya, Dairy, Tomato, Tea, Rice, Potato, Avocado, Poultry, Sunflower, and Sugarcane.

3.2. Comparative Analysis of Commodity-Specific Strategies

The flexibility of the commodity partnership model is best illustrated by comparing how it was applied to address the distinct challenges of different value chains. The “compact” proved to be a versatile tool, adaptable for solving problems ranging from research and development to international trade policy. The following table provides a comparative analysis of several key commodity partnerships, showcasing this strategic nuance.

Commodity & Strategic Goal	Core Problem/Bottleneck	Key Partners Convened	Primary Intervention/Compact Focus	Notable Outcome/Policy Win
Soybean Import substitution for animal feed; develop a domestic protein source.	Chronic shortage of certified, high-quality seeds; fragmented farmer access to inputs and markets.	TARI, Private Seed Companies, WFP (FtMA), Local Government, Farmer Cooperatives, Financial Institutions (CRDB, NMB).	Seed System Compact (2022): Formalized agreements for seed multiplication, distribution, and financing. Establishment of demo farms.	Launch of the Tanzania Sustainable Soybean Initiative (TSSI) as a national flagship program.23
Dairy Formalize and increase efficiency of the raw milk supply chain.	Inefficient milk collection from dispersed smallholders; underutilization of processing capacity.	ASAS Dairies, Njombe Milk Factory, Tanzania Dairy Board (TDB), Ministry of Livestock, Heifer-Tanzania, ILRI.	Outgrower & Logistics Partnership: Improving collection center logistics, providing training, and developing financing instruments for smallholders.	Increased and more reliable raw milk supply, enabling processors like ASAS to operate closer to full capacity.24
Avocado Access high-value international export markets.	Lack of coordinated industry voice; barriers to phytosanitary compliance for new markets.	Private Exporters, Tanzania Horticultural Association (TAHA), Government Ministries (Agriculture, Trade).	Market Access Partnership: Coordinated lobbying and technical work to meet import requirements of target countries.	Opened new export markets in China, South Africa, and the USA (2022); formation of the Avocado Society of Tanzania (ASTA).25
Poultry Increase domestic production; reduce reliance on imported day-old chicks.	High cost of inputs, particularly for animal feed production, due to taxes on essential machinery.	Poultry Producers (e.g., Silverlands), Feed Millers (e.g., Tanfeeds), Ministry of Livestock.	Policy Advocacy Coalition: Targeted lobbying to remove taxes and VAT on key inputs for the poultry sector.	Successful advocacy for the removal of taxes on Animal Feed Mill Machinery, lowering production costs.26
Sunflower / Edible Oil Promote domestic production to substitute for imported palm oil.	Competition from cheaper, imported edible oils, which disincentivizes local sunflower cultivation and processing.	Sunflower Growers, Oil Processors, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Finance.	Macroeconomic Policy Lobbying: Coordinated advocacy to maintain a protective tariff regime for edible oils.	Successful lobbying to maintain importation tariffs of 25% and 35% on crude and semi-refined edible oil [User Query].
Rice Enhance food security and boost export potential through increased productivity.	Low yields due to traditional farming methods and inefficient water management.	Kilombero Plantations Ltd (KPL), TARI, TANTRADE, Farmer Groups.	Technology Adoption Partnership: Promotion and training on the System of Rice Intensification (SRI) and improved irrigation.	Yields increased from ~3 tons/ha to over 5 tons/ha in some areas; first high-quality rice export to France facilitated.15

3.3. Case Study: The Tanzania Sustainable Soybean Initiative (TSSI) and its Strategic Importance

The soybean value chain provides a compelling case study of the commodity-centric model in action. Despite being identified as a priority crop by the government, domestic soybean production was chronically constrained by a critical bottleneck: a severe lack of quality, certified seeds and poor farmer access to appropriate fertilizers.²⁸

In 2022, SCL facilitated the formation of a dedicated Soybean coalition in the Iringa region, which formalized a compact specifically to address this seed system failure. The compact brought together local government authorities, private seed companies, research institutions like the Tanzania Agricultural Research Institute (TARI), and farmer cooperatives.²³ This formalized collaboration created a predictable environment that de-risked the value chain for all participants. Seed companies gained the confidence to invest in multiplication, knowing there was coordinated government support and organized farmer demand. Farmers gained access to quality inputs and training, confident there would be a market for their increased output.

This compact became the nucleus of the broader Tanzania Sustainable Soybean Initiative (TSSI), a flagship program under SAGCOT.²³ The strategic importance of soybean cannot be overstated. It is a critical ingredient for animal feed, making it essential for the growth of the domestic dairy and poultry sectors and reducing reliance on costly imports. It is also a key source of edible oil, aligning with the national goal of substituting imported palm oil with locally produced alternatives.²⁶ The TSSI exemplifies the partnership model’s ability to tackle a strategic national priority by resolving a specific, technical bottleneck at the value chain level.

3.4. Policy Advocacy in Action: Securing Favorable Conditions for Poultry and Edible Oils

The pivot to a commodity focus fundamentally transformed SCL’s role from a general facilitator into a highly effective, specialized policy advocate. By developing deep technical expertise in specific value chains, SCL could build targeted advocacy campaigns around precise and actionable policy “asks,” making it a far more influential player in policy circles than was possible under the broader cluster model.

Two clear examples highlight this success:

• Poultry: The Poultry Strategic Partnership identified high input costs as a major barrier to increasing domestic production and competing with imported day-old chicks. The coalition launched a focused advocacy campaign, which successfully resulted in the removal of taxes on critical inputs like Animal Feed Mill Machinery. This policy change directly lowered the cost of producing animal feed locally, a crucial step in strengthening the entire domestic poultry industry.¹⁸
• Sunflower and Edible Oil: To protect and incentivize the nascent domestic edible oil industry, the Sunflower partnership lobbied the government on macroeconomic policy. Their efforts were instrumental in the government’s decision to maintain protective importation tariffs of 25% for crude and 35% for semi-refined edible oil. This policy created a more favorable market for domestic sunflower oil, directly encouraging farmers to increase production as a substitute for imported palm oil [User Query].

These examples demonstrate how the commodity-specific partnership model enabled SAGCOT to move beyond on-farm issues and influence the broader policy and macroeconomic environment, creating the enabling conditions necessary for value chains to thrive.

4. The Partnership in Practice: Anatomy of Compacts and Strategic Partnerships

The success of the SAGCOT model is rooted in its disciplined use of specific partnership instruments designed to foster alignment, accountability, and collective action. “Compacts” and “Strategic Partnerships” are not merely buzzwords but are structured mechanisms for convening diverse actors and implementing end-to-end value chain solutions. A granular analysis of these instruments, particularly through deep-dive case studies of the Dairy and Avocado value chains, reveals a sophisticated approach to building durable business ecosystems.

4.1. Defining the Instruments: The Form and Function of Compacts

Within the SAGCOT framework, a “compact” is a formal, multi-stakeholder agreement that serves as a roadmap for collective action. It moves beyond informal collaboration to a documented consensus that clearly outlines the specific roles, responsibilities, and commitments of each partner in addressing a set of identified challenges.⁷ Whether applied at the broader cluster level or, more recently, at the targeted commodity level, the function of the compact is to create a framework of mutual accountability.

By formalizing these commitments, the compact fosters the ownership and trust that are essential for long-term, complex collaborations.⁷ This process is not merely administrative; it is a strategic tool for generating critical market intelligence. The data emerging from the development of these compacts—covering investment requirements, expected returns, partner profiles, and key policy considerations—forms the core of AGCOT’s “Value Chain Intelligence” platform, providing a rich dataset for future planning and investment promotion.³⁰

4.2. Convening Coalitions: How Strategic Partnerships Align Diverse Actors

If the compact is the “what” (the agreement), the “Strategic Partnership” (SP) is the “who” and “how” (the operational coalition). An SP is the dynamic group of actors convened by SCL to develop, implement, and oversee the solutions outlined in a compact.⁴ SCL’s role as a partnership broker is to identify the necessary players from across the value chain—private companies, farmer organizations, government agencies, CSOs—and bring them together to collectively identify and resolve constraints.⁴

The high demand for this form of coordination is evident in SCL’s performance. In 2022, the organization facilitated the formation of 17 new coalitions, far exceeding its target of five for the year.³² This indicates that stakeholders across the agricultural sector recognized the value of these structured partnerships in addressing issues that no single actor could solve alone. These SPs have had a significant nationwide impact, tackling key regulatory, tax, investment, and technology issues within their respective value chains.³²

4.3. Deep Dive Case Study: The Dairy Value Chain Strategic Partnership

The Dairy Value Chain Strategic Partnership, based in the Ihemi cluster, serves as a prime example of the model’s application to create an end-to-end value chain solution.²⁴

• The Challenge: Tanzania’s dairy sector faced a classic coordination failure. Large processing plants, such as ASAS Dairies and Njombe Milk Factory, were operating significantly below capacity due to an unreliable and inefficient supply of raw milk. Meanwhile, thousands of smallholder dairy farmers were dispersed over a wide geographic area, lacking organized collection systems, access to finance for improved breeds and feed, and the technical expertise to produce high-quality milk consistently.²⁴
• The Partnership Solution: The Dairy SP convened a comprehensive coalition of stakeholders to address this problem systemically. The key actors included:

• Private Sector Anchors: Processors like ASAS Dairies and Njombe Milk Factory, who provided the guaranteed market (off-take) for the milk.²⁴
• Government & Regulatory Bodies: The Tanzania Dairy Board (TDB) and the Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries, which provided policy guidance and regulatory support.²⁴
• Technical & Development Partners: Organizations like Heifer-Tanzania, the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), and Technoserve, which offered expertise in farmer organization, animal husbandry, and sustainable practices.²⁴
• Financial Institutions: Partners were brought in to develop appropriate financing instruments for smallholder farmers and their cooperatives.²⁴
• Farmer Representatives: The Tanzania Milk Producers Association (TAMPRODA) and local government authorities in the Ihemi and Mbarali clusters ensured the inclusion of farmer perspectives.²⁴
• Objectives and Interventions: The SP’s core objective was to improve smallholder engagement to ensure a sustainable sourcing of high-quality raw milk. Interventions were designed to address each link in the chain: supporting farmers’ entry into the production process, improving collection logistics from over 8,000 smallholders, and ensuring the project’s environmental sustainability through practices like biogas utilization and soil improvement with cow manure.²⁴ This multi-layered governance structure, where the commodity-specific SP operates within the broader geographic framework of the Ihemi cluster, demonstrates a key design feature of the evolved SAGCOT model.

4.4. Deep Dive Case Study: The Avocado Strategic Partnership and Market Expansion

While the Dairy SP focused on strengthening an existing domestic supply chain, the Avocado SP highlights the model’s effectiveness in creating new international market opportunities.

• The Challenge: Tanzania’s avocado sector had immense potential but was fragmented. Producers and exporters lacked a unified voice to engage with the government or to negotiate access to lucrative international markets, which have stringent phytosanitary and quality standards.
• The Partnership Solution: The Avocado SP brought together key private exporters, the Tanzania Horticultural Association (TAHA), and relevant government bodies to create a unified strategy for market expansion.
• Key Achievement and Institutionalization: The partnership’s focused, coordinated efforts were instrumental in achieving a major breakthrough in 2022: opening new, high-value export markets for Tanzanian avocados in China, South Africa, and the USA.²⁵ This achievement required intensive technical work on compliance and high-level diplomatic and trade negotiations, efforts that were made possible by the unified front presented by the SP.

Crucially, the partnership did more than just solve an immediate problem; it built a durable business ecosystem. A key outcome of the SP’s collaboration was the formation of the Avocado Society of Tanzania (ASTA), a permanent industry body created to serve as the official, unified voice for the avocado sector. This demonstrates the partnership model’s function as an incubator for long-term institutional capacity. It transitioned from a temporary, problem-solving coalition into a self-sustaining industry institution, ensuring the value chain’s continued growth and advocacy long after the initial market-access goal was achieved.

5. Gauging the Transformation: A Multi-faceted Impact Assessment

Over its 14-year operational lifespan, the SAGCOT initiative has had a profound and measurable impact on Tanzanian agriculture. The multi-stakeholder partnership model has been instrumental in mobilizing significant investment, boosting farmer productivity and incomes, and creating widespread employment. However, a comprehensive assessment requires a balanced perspective that acknowledges not only the impressive headline achievements but also the persistent challenges and valid criticisms related to inclusivity, land governance, and the inherent risks of its investment-led approach.

5.1. Economic Impact: Investment Mobilization, Farmer Revenue, and Job Creation

One of SAGCOT’s most significant achievements has been its success as a catalyst for investment. The initiative proved highly effective at de-risking the agricultural sector for both public and private capital. By the time of its transition to the national AGCOT program, the partnership had mobilized a total of $6.34 billion in investments. This comprised $1.32 billion from the private sector flowing into commercial farming and agro-processing, and a substantial $5.02 billion in public sector contributions, largely directed towards enabling infrastructure such as roads, irrigation, and energy.³³ Earlier figures cited $1.3 billion in private and $2.2 billion in public investments, underscoring the consistent growth trajectory.³⁵

This influx of capital translated into tangible gains for the corridor’s farmers. Data from 2022 showed a 17% surge in smallholder farmer revenues from farming activities compared to the previous year, reaching over $54.2 million, with female smallholders recording the highest revenue gains.³² Over the lifetime of the initiative, SAGCOT is credited with generating more than $600 million in new farm revenues.³⁴ This economic dynamism also fueled significant job creation, with estimates indicating that the initiative contributed to the creation of over 253,000 new jobs in the agricultural sector and related service industries.³⁴

5.2. Agricultural Impact: Productivity Gains and Technology Adoption

The partnership model was highly effective at promoting the adoption of modern agricultural technologies and practices, leading to dramatic productivity gains in key value chains. This impact is clearly visible in specific commodity sectors:

• Potato: In the Ihemi and Mbarali clusters, the potato value chain was transformed, with productivity skyrocketing from less than 8 tons per hectare to an impressive 30 tons per hectare through the introduction of improved seed varieties and better agronomic practices.²⁶
• Rice: The promotion of the System of Rice Intensification (SRI) led to a paradigm shift in rice cultivation. This method, which uses significantly less water, enabled farmers in areas like Kilombero and Mbarali to more than double their yields, from a baseline of 2-3 tons per hectare to over 5 tons per hectare, with some schemes reaching 10 tons per hectare.¹⁵

Cumulatively, SAGCOT’s efforts resulted in over 859,000 hectares of land being brought under improved, profitable production, directly impacting the livelihoods of nearly 900,000 farmers.¹⁸

5.3. Social and Environmental Dimensions: Smallholder Inclusivity and Sustainability

A core tenet of the SAGCOT model was to ensure that growth was both inclusive and sustainable. On inclusivity, the initiative made significant strides in engaging smallholder farmers. By 2021, SAGCOT’s partners were working with over 676,000 smallholders, a 78% increase from the previous year. Notably, this engagement demonstrated a strong focus on demographic priorities, with 40% of these farmers being women and nearly 69% being youth (aged 18-29).³⁸

On the environmental front, the commitment to the “Greenprint” strategy was operationalized through partnerships with conservation organizations like the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN).¹ Practical initiatives, such as the soil testing program in the Ihemi Cluster and the promotion of biogas and sustainable soil management in the Dairy Partnership, demonstrated a tangible commitment to protecting the natural resource base.³¹ The use of tools like the Inclusive Green Growth (IGG) Tool provided a framework for guiding investments towards socially and environmentally responsible outcomes.¹⁸

5.4. Navigating Headwinds: An Analysis of Implementation Challenges and Criticisms

Despite its clear successes, SAGCOT’s journey was not without significant challenges and criticisms. A balanced assessment must acknowledge these headwinds, which offer crucial lessons for the national AGCOT scale-up.

• Inclusivity and Equity: The initiative faced an “inclusivity paradox.” To attract the large-scale private investment needed to build processing plants and market infrastructure—which ultimately creates markets for smallholders—it often had to first partner with larger, more established commercial farms. This led to credible criticism that the initial focus leaned towards corporate agribusiness, with smallholder benefits being a later, and perhaps expedient, emphasis driven by pressure from CSOs and researchers.²⁰ While the model demonstrably evolved to prioritize smallholder integration, ensuring genuine, equitable benefits from the outset remains a critical challenge.
• Land Governance: Land has been one of the most persistent and complex challenges. Concerns were consistently raised about the dispossession of land from poor rural dwellers, a lack of transparency in land allocation processes, and the potential for land-related conflicts.²⁰ The bankruptcy of showcase projects like Kilombero Plantation Limited (KPL) further highlighted the inherent risks and social complexities of large-scale land-based investments, leaving a legacy of problems for affected communities.⁴⁰
• Political and Business Environment: SAGCOT operated within a dynamic and sometimes difficult external context. Its progress was influenced by shifting political regimes and development approaches, from a focus on foreign investment to periods of resource nationalism and back to pragmatism.⁹ A deteriorating business environment at times constrained the vision of a private sector-led transformation, underscoring the initiative’s dependence on a stable and predictable policy landscape.¹²

The impact metrics reported by SAGCOT, while impressive, also reveal the model’s primary orientation. The headline figures consistently emphasize commercialization and economic growth—tons produced, dollars invested, revenues generated. While social and environmental goals were clearly integrated, they were often framed as essential components for making that commercialization responsible and sustainable, rather than being the primary objectives in themselves. This reflects the core mandate of transforming agriculture into a commercial engine, a crucial characteristic to understand as the model is replicated nationwide.

6. Phase III – From Corridor to National Blueprint: The AGCOT Mandate (2024 Onwards)

The third and current phase of the initiative marks its most significant transformation: the evolution from a successful regional pilot into the central pillar of Tanzania’s national agricultural strategy. The transition from SAGCOT to the Agricultural Growth Corridors of Tanzania (AGCOT) represents the formal adoption and institutionalization of the “SAGCOT way” as the primary delivery mechanism for the nation’s long-term vision for the sector. This scale-up is the culmination of over a decade of iterative learning, codifying a proven partnership model into a national blueprint for growth.

6.1. The Rationale for National Expansion: Codifying the “SAGCOT Way”

The impetus for national expansion was twofold. Firstly, the SAGCOT initiative had demonstrated remarkable success, achieving many of its ambitious 2030 objectives well ahead of schedule.⁶ Its track record of mobilizing over $6.3 billion in investment and significantly boosting farmer productivity and incomes provided a powerful proof of concept.³⁴ Secondly, this success generated widespread demand from agricultural stakeholders in other regions of the country who were eager for the inclusion of their corridors in a similar, structured development initiative.⁶

This momentum culminated in a landmark directive from Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan on March 17, 2023. Recognizing the proven potential of the model, she officially mandated the nationwide replication of SAGCOT’s approach, providing the high-level political will necessary to elevate the initiative from a regional project to a national strategy.⁴² This led to the formal launch of AGCOT in April 2025.³⁴

6.2. AGCOT as Flagship 7: Integration into the Agriculture Master Plan 2050

The strategic importance of this transition was cemented by the designation of AGCOT as Flagship No. 7 of the Agriculture Master Plan (AMP) 2050.³⁴ This is a critical development, as it formally integrates the corridor partnership model into the very heart of Tanzania’s long-term agricultural vision. It is no longer one of many projects; it is now the foundational gear and central delivery mechanism for the entire master plan.³⁷

This new status comes with a vastly expanded set of national ambitions. The AGCOT initiative is now tasked with playing a leading role in achieving the audacious goals of the AMP 2050, which include:

• Propelling Tanzania’s agricultural GDP towards a target of $100 billion by 2050 [User Query].
• Catalyzing $20 billion in net agricultural exports.³⁴
• Creating millions of new rural jobs and increasing smallholder incomes by 25%.³⁴

This integration marks a fundamental shift in the model’s identity. SAGCOT was a project, albeit a very large one, situated in a specific geography. AGCOT is a national platform—an operating system for implementing agricultural policy and catalyzing investment across the entire country. This institutional elevation provides the model with greater stability, authority, and political significance, embedding it within the state’s long-term development machinery.

6.3. The New Institutional Framework: Transitioning SCL to the AGCOT Centre

To reflect its expanded national mandate, the SAGCOT Centre Ltd. was formally restructured and renamed the AGCOT Centre.⁶ This new institutional backbone will serve as the operational nucleus for corridor development nationwide. Its core task is to deploy the proven “SAGCOT approach”—built around the dual instruments of cluster compacts and commodity compacts—across all of the country’s key agricultural zones.⁶ The AGCOT Centre will be responsible for investment facilitation, regulatory dialogue, stakeholder engagement, and performance monitoring across all corridors, deploying agile implementation teams to each zone.³⁴

6.4. Expanding the Model: Blueprints for the Central, Northern, and Mtwara Corridors

The national rollout of AGCOT is being guided by a systematic, corridor-by-corridor strategy. This involves the development of new, tailored investment blueprints for three additional strategic zones: the Central Corridor, the Northern Corridor, and the Mtwara Corridor.³⁰ Each blueprint will identify the unique stakeholders, business opportunities, priority value chains, and key geographic clusters within that specific corridor.⁶

This expansion does not mean the abandonment of the original corridor. The Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor, now known as the SAGCOT Corridor, will be maintained and further developed, serving as the most mature and established hub within the broader national AGCOT network.⁴²

However, this ambitious national expansion carries a significant strategic risk: the potential for a “copy-paste” failure. The success of SAGCOT was not built on a rigid template but on 14 years of iterative learning, deep stakeholder consultation, and adaptation to the specific agro-ecological and socio-economic context of the Southern Highlands. The greatest challenge for the AGCOT Centre will be to replicate the flexible methodology of partnership building, not just the formal structures of compacts and SPs. The success of AGCOT will hinge on its ability to apply this methodology with the same level of nuance and local specificity to the diverse contexts of the new corridors, each with its own unique crops, land tenure systems, and market dynamics.

7. Strategic Outlook and Recommendations: Sustaining the Momentum for National Transformation

The transition from SAGCOT to AGCOT marks a pivotal moment for Tanzanian agriculture. The institutionalization of a proven partnership model as a national strategy offers immense potential, but its success is not guaranteed. Sustaining the momentum for transformation requires a clear-eyed understanding of the key success factors derived from the SAGCOT experience and a proactive approach to mitigating the systemic risks inherent in a national scale-up. The following recommendations are offered to guide the successful implementation of the AGCOT mandate.

7.1. Key Success Factors for Replication Across New Corridors

The successful replication of the SAGCOT model depends on adhering to the core principles that underpinned its effectiveness in the Southern Corridor.

• Recommendation: Replicate the Process, Not Just the Structure. The most critical lesson from SAGCOT is that the process of partnership building is more important than the formal structure. The AGCOT Centre must resist the temptation to apply a rigid, one-size-fits-all template to the new corridors. Instead, it must commit to a resource-intensive process of deep, hyper-local stakeholder consultations in each new cluster to collaboratively define priorities, identify bottlenecks, and co-design commodity compacts that reflect local realities.
• Recommendation: Maintain the Institutional Neutrality of the AGCOT Centre. A key reason for SCL’s success was its credibility as an “honest broker,” trusted by both the government and the private sector. As the AGCOT Centre assumes a more central role in national policy, it is imperative to safeguard its institutional neutrality and private-sector orientation. This will preserve its ability to facilitate open dialogue, build consensus, and attract private investment, which remains the core engine of the model.

7.2. Addressing Systemic Risks: Land Governance, Climate Resilience, and Sustainable Financing

The national scale-up will amplify the systemic risks that were present even at the regional level. These must be addressed proactively and systematically.

• Recommendation: Prioritize Land Governance from the Outset. Land tenure was a persistent and complex challenge for SAGCOT. To avoid repeating these issues at a national scale, the AGCOT Centre, in collaboration with the Ministry of Lands, must integrate clear, transparent, and equitable land tenure frameworks into every new corridor blueprint from day one. This should include mechanisms for securing smallholder land rights, managing land acquisition for investment transparently, and establishing clear conflict resolution processes.
• Recommendation: Hardwire Climate Resilience into All Commodity Compacts. Given the increasing impacts of climate change, resilience can no longer be an add-on; it must be a core investment criterion. All new commodity compacts should explicitly incorporate goals and interventions related to climate-smart agriculture, sustainable water management (such as the promotion of efficient irrigation technologies), and biodiversity conservation.²² This will ensure the long-term sustainability of the investments and protect the natural resource base.
• Recommendation: Develop a Diversified and Sustainable Financing Strategy. The AGCOT Centre’s expanded national mandate will require a more robust and sustainable financing model. While development partner support remains crucial, a long-term strategy should be developed to diversify funding sources. This could include exploring innovative financing mechanisms, establishing fee-for-service models for certain advisory functions, and securing long-term endowment funding to ensure the Centre’s operational stability and independence.

7.3. Recommendations for Optimizing the Commodity Compact Model at a National Scale

As the commodity compact becomes the primary tool for intervention nationwide, its application can be optimized for greater efficiency and impact.

• Recommendation: Implement a Tiered System for Commodity Compacts. Not all value chains are at the same stage of development. The AGCOT Centre should develop a tiered approach, distinguishing between:

• Tier 1 (Mature Value Chains): Commodities with established markets and anchor investors, where compacts can focus on scaling up investment, optimizing logistics, and expanding exports.
• Tier 2 (Emerging Value Chains): Commodities with high potential but lacking foundational elements, where compacts should focus on more upstream issues like research and development, seed system development, and initial market creation.
• Recommendation: Digitize Compact Management and Monitoring. The complexity of managing dozens of compacts across four corridors requires a sophisticated information management system. The AGCOT Information Hub should be developed into a robust digital platform for managing the entire compact lifecycle—from partner registration and commitment tracking to monitoring progress against key performance indicators.³⁰ This will enhance transparency, improve accountability, and provide real-time data for adaptive management and decision-making.

7.4. Concluding Analysis: The SAGCOT/AGCOT Model as a Paradigm for African Agricultural Development

The 14-year journey of SAGCOT, culminating in its national mandate as AGCOT, offers a globally significant case study in the architecture of agricultural transformation. Its core innovation is not the simple advocacy of public-private partnership, but the meticulous development and refinement of a disciplined, repeatable partnership mechanism—the commodity compact—that has proven remarkably effective at aligning public policy, private capital, and smallholder ambition.

By creating a structured platform to de-risk investment, resolve specific value chain bottlenecks, and build durable business ecosystems, the model provides a powerful answer to the question of how to move from agricultural potential to commercial reality. While significant challenges related to land, equity, and the complexities of replication remain, the “SAGCOT way” offers a compelling and adaptable paradigm. If implemented with the same commitment to learning, adaptation, and local context that defined its success in the Southern Corridor, the AGCOT initiative has the potential to not only realize Tanzania’s vision of a prosperous agricultural future but also to provide an invaluable blueprint for other nations across Africa seeking to unlock the transformative power of their own agricultural sectors.

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