Report: The Ripple Effects of U.S. Aid Withdrawal in Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and South Sudan

Kilimokwanza.org 

The abrupt cessation of U.S. foreign aid under recent administrative policies has significantly impacted East Africa. Nations such as Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and South Sudan, which have heavily relied on external assistance, now face potential upheaval across critical sectors, including healthcare, agriculture, education, and governance. 

The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has implemented a significant policy shift by halting all new funding obligations and sub-obligations under Development Objective Agreements (DOAGs). Initiated by an Executive Order to reevaluate and realign U.S. foreign aid, this policy took effect on January 24, 2025. The sudden pause has disrupted numerous foreign assistance programs administered by USAID, compelling partner nations to grapple with the immediate and long-term consequences of this pause for 30 days, which might culminate in total withdrawal for some projects.

The Financial Vacuum and Its Immediate Fallout

The table below provides a stark visualization of the magnitude of aid that has been cut, revealing the sectors most vulnerable to this sudden withdrawal:

Country	Annual U.S. Aid (USD)	Key Sectors Affected	Population Impacted
Tanzania	$933 million	Health, agriculture, governance, infrastructure	Over 30 million
Kenya	$1 billion	Health, agriculture, education, security	Over 40 million
Uganda	$950 million	Health, agriculture, governance, education	Over 35 million
Rwanda	$200 million	Health, agriculture, governance, education	Over 10 million
Burundi	$80 million	Health, agriculture, governance, human rights	Over 8 million
South Sudan	$1 billion	Humanitarian aid, health, governance, education	Over 11 million

Health Sector Under Threat

The discontinuation of U.S. aid threatens to dismantle healthcare initiatives across the region. Programs like the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) and malaria control are in jeopardy. The potential rollback in healthcare advancements poses a public health emergency and a moral dilemma, as millions may lose access to essential life-saving treatments.

Agriculture and Food Security Jeopardized

The impact is doubly severe in countries heavily reliant on agriculture, such as Burundi and South Sudan. Initiatives like Feed the Future have bolstered smallholder farmers, enhancing food security and agricultural productivity. Without this support, the threat of increased food scarcity and famine looms large, potentially destabilizing already vulnerable economies.

Governance and Stability at Risk

The withdrawal of aid has also cast a long shadow over the governance landscape. In South Sudan and Burundi, U.S. contributions have been pivotal in peacebuilding and democratic reforms. The funding cut could halt progress towards democratization and peace, risking a resurgence of conflict and governance crises.

Education and Future Generations

The education sector’s advancements in literacy and school enrollments are at risk of being undone. Significant progress has been made in Kenya, Rwanda, and Uganda, fueled by U.S. financial support. The potential disruption of these programs threatens to curtail opportunities for youth, impacting their future employability and economic independence.

Impact of US Aid Withdrawal on Various African Countries

Tanzania

The cessation of US aid could severely impact Tanzania’s health sector, especially programs like PEPFAR that have been crucial in combating HIV/AIDS. This might reverse the gains made in reducing HIV/AIDS prevalence, leading to increased healthcare costs and potentially higher HIV-related mortality and morbidity rates. Additionally, the shift from emergency food assistance to sustainable agricultural development, previously supported by US aid, has significantly bolstered food security and agricultural productivity. Abruptly ending this support could stall these advancements, forcing a return to reliance on emergency aid during crises.

Kenya

Kenya has benefitted significantly from US aid, enhancing agricultural resilience and healthcare services. Withdrawing this aid might tighten fiscal policies and reduce government spending, negatively affecting efforts to alleviate poverty and improve food security. This could push Kenya towards seeking alternative funding sources and adopting stricter fiscal discipline.

Uganda

In Uganda, US aid has supported socio-economic growth but also fostered dependency and corruption. Eliminating this aid could worsen economic challenges and impede progress in health and education sectors. This situation might necessitate a reevaluation of Uganda’s reliance on foreign aid, potentially encouraging moves towards greater self-reliance and enhanced governance.

Rwanda

US aid has been integral to Rwanda’s recovery and development post-genocide, supporting key sectors like healthcare and infrastructure. Despite criticisms of potentially bolstering a semi-authoritarian regime, withdrawing aid could disrupt Rwanda’s development trajectory. This might encourage a shift towards more sustainable and autonomous economic policies.

Burundi

Heavily reliant on international aid, Burundi could face deepened economic crises if US aid is withdrawn. This might derail progress in health, education, and governance, and exacerbate instability. Such challenges could prompt shifts towards economic diversification and improved fiscal management to lessen the impacts of reduced foreign aid.

South Sudan

For South Sudan, already facing severe humanitarian crises, the withdrawal of US aid could be catastrophic, worsening food insecurity, increasing displacement, and hampering peace efforts. While aid dependency and corruption are concerns, the focus should be on optimizing aid effectiveness and fostering sustainable development initiatives.

Types of U.S. Aid

U.S. aid to Africa encompasses a variety of programs and initiatives, including:

• Humanitarian and Civic Assistance: These activities are conducted in conjunction with authorized military operations and exercises, with the approval of the partner nation. Common projects include constructing health clinics and schools and providing humanitarian supplies. These efforts aim to reduce the risk of and respond to humanitarian disasters.  

• Pandemic Response Program: The U.S. military can play a key role in pandemic response by working with other organizations to maintain security, provide logistical support for essential commodities, maintain communications, and provide augmented medical care.  

• Humanitarian Mine Action: This program aims to relieve human suffering caused by landmines and other explosive remnants of war. The Department of Defense supports foreign governments in detecting, clearing, and managing these hazards.  

• Development Assistance: Beyond humanitarian aid, the U.S. also provides development assistance to support economic growth, democracy and governance, education, and environmental conservation in Africa. These programs are implemented through agencies like USAID and the Department of State, working in partnership with African governments and civil society organizations.  

Historical Trends of U.S. Aid to Africa

U.S. aid to Africa has evolved over time, influenced by geopolitical factors, domestic priorities, and evolving development approaches. Over the past two decades, Africa has received a growing share of annual U.S. foreign assistance funding. This trend was particularly pronounced during the 2000s with increased funding for HIV/AIDS programs through PEPFAR. Beyond global health initiatives, the U.S. is the leading donor of humanitarian aid to sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in the area of emergency food aid.  

While health assistance remains a significant portion of U.S. aid to Africa, other sectors have also received considerable support. These include agriculture and economic growth, democracy and governance, and security assistance. The U.S. government has also increasingly emphasized multi-country initiatives focused on specific development challenges in Africa, such as Feed the Future for agricultural development and Power Africa for energy access.  

It is important to consider the historical context of U.S. involvement in Africa. During the Cold War, both the U.S. and the USSR exploited the challenges created by colonial borders in Africa, often supporting different sides in regional conflicts and exacerbating tensions.