At a landmark summit, Tanzania’s top agricultural council outlined a dual strategy: awaken the “sleeping giants” of dormant farms for a new youth corps, and unlock the “hidden giant” of its 90% domestic market.

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The Summit, The Speech, and The Strategic Pivot

The inaugural Horticulture Business and Investment Summit (HoBIS 2025), held in Dar es Salaam from November 12-13, was orchestrated as a landmark event, a pivot point for Tanzania’s agricultural ambitions.¹ Convened by the government in partnership with the Tanzania Horticultural Association (TAHA), the summit drew over 400 high-level stakeholders, including investors, development partners, and five permanent secretaries from various ministries.¹ Its stated purpose was to “strengthen investment, trade, and innovation” in what is already the country’s fastest-growing agricultural subsector.¹

The summit unfolded against a backdrop of spectacular success. Tanzania’s horticulture exports are in a period of exponential growth, with the sector’s earnings clocking $502.8 million in the year ending November 2024.⁵ This represented a monumental 40.6% year-on-year jump from the $417.9 million reported in March 2024.⁶ With TAHA, a key summit organizer, confidently targeting $2 billion in future earnings, the event could have been a simple exercise in self-congratulation.¹

It was not. The summit was instead chosen as the platform for a major, top-down policy declaration, a moment of strategic correction delivered by the very architects of the nation’s agricultural transformation.

One of the keynote addresses was from Hon. Mizengo Pinda, the former Prime Minister and current Chairperson of the powerful, newly established Presidential Food and Agriculture Delivery Council.⁷ The speech, however, was delivered on his behalf by Mr. Geoffrey Kirenga, the CEO of the newly rebranded national agency, the Agriculture Growth Corridors of Tanzania (AGCOT) .. The significance of this dual-messenger delivery was not lost on the audience. Kirenga is not just Pinda’s proxy; he is also a member of Pinda’s Presidential Council ..

This delivery was a deliberate, symbolic act. It physically embodied the new, unbroken chain of command in Tanzanian agriculture, a clear signal of a unified front. The structure flows directly from the Presidency to the high-level strategic architect (Pinda’s Council) and down to the national-level chief implementer (Kirenga’s AGCOT). The message was one of lockstep coordination: the planner and the executor are one, and the new national strategy is locked in.

The speech itself, read by Kirenga, acknowledged the nation’s success but immediately pivoted from celebration to correction. Pinda’s text affirmed that the nation’s goal is a “transformation ya mnyororo wa thamani” (transformation of the value chain) and a “mapinduzi ya viwanda vya kilimo” (industrial revolution in agriculture) .. He then used the remainder of the address to define this transformation by calling on the nation to awaken “two giants.”

This maneuver was a sophisticated political calculation. Pinda was, in effect, using the success of the high-value, high-visibility export sector as the political and economic capital needed to justify a difficult and costly correction of the nation’s two largest internal agricultural failures. The first is the physical, sleeping giant: a portfolio of massive, valuable commercial farms lying dead and unproductive .. The second is the hidden, systemic giant: a colossal domestic market that, despite accounting for 90% of all horticultural produce, remains fragmented, chaotic, and inefficient ..

Pinda’s message was clear: “We have proven we can win on the world stage. Now, we must use that momentum to fix our own house.”

Awakening the Sleeping Giants: The Arusha Flower Farm Revival

Hon. Pinda’s first directive was precise and unambiguous. He called for a strategy to “fufua mashamba yaliyo fungwa” (revive closed farms), specifically targeting “mashamba ya mauwa” (flower farms) and designating “mkoa wa Arusha na mikoa ya Kaskazini” (Arusha region and the Northern regions) as the immediate starting point ..

This is not a trivial matter of reclaiming a few small plots. These “sleeping giants” are large-scale, high-value commercial estates whose idleness represents a significant drag on the national economy. The Arusha Regional Commissioner’s office has been actively working to recoup 2,107.6 acres of these redundant flower estates, which have been left to decay for years.⁹

The economic cost of this dormancy is staggering and well-documented. At their peak, these estates generated $24.5 million in annual export value.⁹ The human cost is a mirror of the economic loss: 4,010 direct jobs and a further 40,000 indirect jobs in the surrounding economy have vanished.⁹ Farms with once-globally recognized names like Kili Flora, Arusha Blooms, and Kili Flower Nduruma are now symbols of this decay.¹¹

This situation, however, is now at an end. Pinda’s speech signals a new, hardline state strategy that is moving from protracted investor-state disputes ¹² to decisive action. President Samia Suluhu Hassan has confirmed this shift, announcing that a government task force is actively evaluating all ownership documents and historical performance of these assets.¹¹ The ultimatum is clear: “If no progress is made, these farms will be repossessed”.¹¹ This threat is not isolated to floriculture; it is a clear administrative policy, with similar directives being issued for non-functional, privatized sisal estates and factories.¹¹

The plan to revive these farms is not just a domestic concern; it has international validation. Hailemariam Desalegn, the former Prime Minister of Ethiopia and a key “strategic advisor to President Samia for the agriculture sector,” has personally toured these defunct Arusha flower farms.¹⁰ Desalegn, who presided over Ethiopia’s own horticultural boom, has pledged to use his “experience and networks” to help Tanzania revamp these farms, citing the “success story” in his home country.¹⁰

This high-level involvement is a critical piece of evidence. Ethiopia’s floriculture sector did not emerge from a pure free-market phenomenon; it was a deliberate, state-led industrial policy. That “success story” was built on generous subsidies, multi-year tax holidays, and state-backed credit schemes designed to attract and nurture investors.¹⁰ Desalegn’s direct involvement strongly implies that Tanzania is planning to replicate this state-driven revival model for its own Northern Corridor. Pinda’s speech at HoBIS is the domestic policy articulation of this internationally-backed plan: the state will first repossess the non-performing assets, and then, in all likelihood, provide a new package of incentives to attract new investors or a new, youth-led operating model.

The table below provides a clear case file for the scale of the challenge and opportunity in Arusha, which Pinda’s directive has now placed at the center of national policy.

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Table 1: Case File: The Arusha Dormant Farm Revival Plan

Metric	Details	Source(s)
Asset	Defunct Commercial Flower Farms (e.g., Kili Flora, Arusha Blooms)	11
Location	Arusha Region, Northern Tanzania	9
Scale	2,107.6 acres	9
Economic Loss (Annual)	$24.5 million in lost export value	9
Human Cost (Jobs Lost)	4,010 (Direct) / 40,000 (Indirect)	9
Government Action	Repossession of non-performing assets	11
Proposed Beneficiary	“Building a Better Tomorrow” (BBT) Youth Programme	11

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The “Building a Better Tomorrow” Gambit: A New Youth Corps for Old Lands

Hon. Pinda’s plan for the revived farms did not stop at repossession. He provided the human capital solution: the lands must be revived through “ushirikishe vijana” (youth inclusion) .. He called on the Ministry of Agriculture and its partners to “kuwekeza kwenye program za vijana na wanawake” (invest in youth and women’s programs) using “majukwaa na vituo hatamizi” (platforms and incubators) ..

This is not a vague political hope. It is a direct and explicit policy link. President Samia has already declared that these repossessed farms will be “integrated into the Building a Better Tomorrow (BBT) programme for youth-led agribusiness”.¹¹

The “Building a Better Tomorrow” (BBT) initiative is the Ministry of Agriculture’s flagship, high-profile answer to Tanzania’s youth unemployment crisis.¹⁵ It is an ambitious eight-year (2022-2030) plan with a stated goal of establishing at least one profitable, sustainable, youth-led agribusiness in each of Tanzania’s 12,000 villages.¹⁶ The program’s core purpose is to “rebrand agriculture” ¹⁵ and make it appealing to a generation that has come to see farming as a low-status, high-risk, and low-reward career.¹⁵

The mechanism for the BBT programme is the creation of “block farms” for youth on “underutilized land”.¹⁹ However, the programme has run into the single greatest barrier preventing youth from entering the sector: a fundamental lack of access to both land and credit.¹⁵

Herein lies the logic of the new strategy. The government’s plan to repossess over 2,100 acres of prime, developed (though defunct) agricultural land in Arusha is not a policy separate from BBT. It is the land acquisition strategy for the BBT programme. Pinda’s speech at HoBIS 2025 is the first high-profile event that publicly and strategically connects these two major policies:

1. The state will repossess the non-performing Arusha farms.¹¹
2. The state will allocate this land to the BBT programme.¹¹
3. The state will then use the BBT’s “incubator” model ¹⁶ to settle and finance a new corps of young agricultural entrepreneurs on these revived estates.

It is an elegant solution, but it is also one fraught with peril, as Pinda’s vision is running headlong into a bureaucratic wall. The BBT programme, its chosen vehicle, is struggling.

A performance audit by the National Audit Office (NAO), with findings up to October 2024, delivers a damning assessment of the BBT’s implementation.¹⁷ The audit noted:

• Massive Target Failure: Nearly two years into the program, BBT had only managed to engage 514 youth. This is against its own target of enrolling 2,000 youth-led agribusinesses each year.
• Systemic Poor Planning: The NAO found that the programme “started without the thorough conduct of a preliminary feasibility study” and that “essential stakeholders… were not involved” from the beginning.
• A Total Funding Collapse: The programme was designed on a multi-stakeholder funding model that has completely failed. The audit states that “no funds were disbursed from the earmarked sources,” which were supposed to include TZS 7.6 billion per year from the President’s Office – Regional Administration and Local Government (PO-RALG), TZS 2.24 billion per year from the private sector, and TZS 14.88 billion per year from NGOs.

To compound the problem, a 2024 legal analysis of the BBT-YIA programme found that it “lack[s] specific legal backing” for its most crucial components, namely “sustainable land and financial allocation”.²⁰

Hon. Pinda, as the head of the Presidential Delivery Council, is acutely aware of this critical implementation failure. His speech at HoBIS, therefore, must be seen as an act of high-stakes political pressure. By publicly and symbolically tying the high-profile, economically critical, and internationally-backed Arusha farm revival to the stalled and underfunded BBT programme, he is executing a political forcing function.

He is, in one stroke, elevating the BBT from a simple (and failing) Ministry of Agriculture project to a flagship presidential-level priority. He is sending an unambiguous signal to the uncommitted partners and slow-moving ministries identified by the NAO ¹⁷ that failure is no longer an option. The dormant farms are the asset, the youth are the labor, and Pinda is using the HoBIS platform to force the execution that will finally bring them together.

Unlocking the Hidden Giant: The 90% Domestic Market

After addressing the physical “sleeping giant” of the Arusha farms, Pinda’s speech pivoted to his second, and arguably more profound, directive: a strategic re-evaluation of Tanzania’s “hidden giant,” its domestic market.

In a moment of striking candor, Pinda told the summit audience that the “soko la ndani” (domestic market) is “mara nyingi huwa haliongelewi” (often not spoken about) .. He then proceeded to reveal what he called “siri moja kuu iliyojificha” (one big hidden secret): the domestic market, the one that is so often ignored in favor of export glamour, “ndilo ambalo linatumia 90% ya mazao ya horticulture” (is the one that consumes 90% of the horticulture produce we grow) ..

This is not a rhetorical flourish. It is a statistical fact that has been “hiding” in plain sight in government and academic reports for years. A 2025 Bank of Tanzania working paper confirms Pinda’s number precisely: “about 90 percent of the horticultural produce is consumed locally”.²¹ A 2022 REPOA research report is even more specific, noting that historically, “98% of the quantity of fruits produced and 91% of the quantity of vegetable produced were marketed locally”.²²

Pinda’s speech is the first high-level admission of what this statistic implies: Tanzania is operating a “two-track” horticulture economy.

Track 1 (The Export Market): This is the high-tech, high-value, and highly organized sector that was celebrated at HoBIS. It is dominated by fewer than 40 large-scale, sophisticated exporters ²³ and coordinated by powerful associations like TAHA.²⁴ It is growing at a staggering 40.6% ⁶ and focuses on globally competitive products like avocados, flowers, and spices.⁶ Post-harvest losses in this chain are managed down to a respectable 10%.²⁵

Track 2 (The Domestic Market): This is the low-tech, high-volume, low-price, and utterly fragmented sector. It is the sole domain of Tanzania’s 4.5 million smallholder farmers.⁴ It is spectacularly inefficient. Dominated by crops like bananas, tomatoes, and local vegetables, this value chain is plagued by a “limited market strategy and information gap”.⁴ The result is a catastrophic post-harvest loss rate estimated at over 40%.²⁵

This is the great disconnect, the “hidden giant” that Pinda’s speech dragged into the light. Having identified it, he issued his core domestic policy directive. He called for a systemic convergence, demanding that the nation “tuhakikishe tunaweka rasilimali” (ensure we invest resources) into the 90% domestic market with the exact same level of professionalism, technology, and urgency as the export market.

In fact, he went further, demanding efficiency “ikiwezekana hata kwa kiwango kinachozidi” (if possible, even at a level exceeding) the effort put into exports .. This is a radical call to end Tanzania’s two-track agricultural system.

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Table 2: Tanzania’s Horticultural Duality: Domestic vs. Export (2024/2025 Data)

Feature	Track 1: Export Market	Track 2: Domestic Market
Volume (% of Total)	< 10%	90%
Key Producers	< 40 Large-Scale Exporters	4.5 Million Smallholder Farmers
Reported Value	$502.8 Million (by Nov 2024)	Undocumented, but high-volume/low-price
Growth (2024)	40.6% (Year-on-Year)	Stagnant; low price realization
Key Products	Avocados, Flowers, Spices, High-Value Veg	Bananas, Tomatoes, Onions, Local Veg
Key Challenges	Global Standards, Logistics, Competition	40%+ Post-Harvest Loss, Fragmentation
Source(s)	1

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Professionalising the ‘Kienyeji’ Value Chain: From Chaos to Commercialisation

Pinda’s call to professionalize the 90% domestic market was not a shot in the dark. The “kienyeji” (traditional) value chain is defined by its deep, systemic challenges: “price opacity,” “inefficient logistics,” “weak coordination among value chain actors” ²⁶, and a “limited market strategy and information gap”.⁴

But the HoBIS summit revealed that this call for reform is not happening in a vacuum. A coordinated, public-private strategy to solve this exact problem was unveiled in parallel to Pinda’s speech.

In late October 2025, just weeks before the summit, the Tanzania Horticultural Association (TAHA)—the summit’s co-organizer—officially launched “HortiMarket”.²⁶ Described as a “cutting-edge digital platform,” HortiMarket is a comprehensive technical solution designed to attack the domestic market’s core inefficiencies.²⁶

Its mechanism is an online marketplace, accessible via website, a mobile “TaricApp,” and even a low-tech USSD code and WhatsApp chatbot, ensuring accessibility.²⁷ The platform is designed to connect over 500,000 smallholder farmers directly to buyers, exporters, and logistics providers.²⁶

The platform’s purpose is a mirror image of Pinda’s critique. It is explicitly designed to solve the problems of the 90% market by providing real-time price updates (ending price opacity), bridging the information gap, and connecting farmers directly to local and international buyers, with the stated aim to “eliminate middlemen”.²⁷

The timing of this is not a coincidence. The HoBIS summit was the stage for a perfectly coordinated, public-private “pincer movement.”

1. The Public Hand (Pinda): Used the summit’s keynote to set the national vision, articulate the 90% problem, and apply political pressure from the top-down, demanding a professionalized domestic market.
2. The Private Hand (TAHA): Used the same summit and its institutional platform to unveil the technical tool (HortiMarket) that will execute this vision from the bottom-up, empowering 500,000 farmers with a digital solution.

This dual unveiling demonstrates a new, sophisticated level of public-private partnership in Tanzania. The Presidential Council sets the “what” and the “why,” and the private sector, in lockstep, delivers the “how.”

The National Blueprint: AGCOT as the Engine for Pinda’s Vision

If Pinda’s speech provided the “what” (revive farms, fix the domestic market), Geoffrey Kirenga’s presence provided the “how.” In his closing remarks, Kirenga formally noted the rebrand of his organization—from SAGCOT (Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania) to AGCOT (Agricultural Growth Corridors of Tanzania).²⁸ This was not a simple name change; it was the announcement of the new national engine built to execute Pinda’s dual-giant strategy.

The predecessor, SAGCOT, was a widely-lauded public-private partnership running from 2010 to 2024.²⁸ As a cornerstone of the “Kilimo Kwanza” (Agriculture First) policy, it focused on the Southern Highlands, mobilizing an estimated $6.34 billion in public and private investments and transforming a region that now accounts for over 65% of Tanzania’s food production.²⁸

The successor, AGCOT, launched in April 2025, is the national scaling of this successful model.²⁸ It was born from a presidential directive by President Samia on March 17, 2023, to replicate the SAGCOT model nationwide.²⁸ AGCOT is now Flagship No. 7 of Tanzania’s new, highly ambitious Agriculture Master Plan 2050.³⁰

This new national framework, AGCOT, unifies four strategic corridors, each to be “tailored to its ecological potential” ³¹:

1. Southern Corridor: The original, highly successful SAGCOT.
2. Northern Corridor: Encompassing Arusha, Kilimanjaro, Manyara, and Tanga.
3. Central Corridor: A vast new zone including Dodoma, Singida, Tabora, and the Lake Zone.
4. Mtwara Corridor: Covering Lindi, Mtwara, and Ruvuma.

This AGCOT structure is the primary vehicle designed to achieve the “Agcot vision”—the national goal of transforming Tanzania into a “$100 billion agriculture economy” by 2050.²⁹

The HoBIS speech, Pinda’s Council, and Kirenga’s AGCOT are all pieces of a single, vertically-integrated strategy.

• The Vision: President Samia’s $100 billion agricultural economy.³¹
• The Architect: Hon. Pinda’s Presidential Food and Agriculture Delivery Council, which sets the strategy.⁷
• The Strategy (unveiled at HoBIS): 1) Revive dormant farms for youth, and 2) Professionalize the 90% domestic market.
• The Engine: Kirenga’s AGCOT, which is the national entity that will execute this dual strategy.

This new structure is not abstract. It maps directly onto the directives from Pinda’s speech.

• Strategy 1 (Farms/Youth) will be executed by AGCOT’s new Northern Corridor.²⁹ This corridor’s jurisdiction is precisely Arusha, Kilimanjaro, Manyara, and Tanga—the exact regions Pinda named in his speech .. This new corridor is now tasked with developing its own “Investment Blueprint” (IBP) to manage this revival, specifically for the flower farms.¹¹
• Strategy 2 (Domestic Market) will be executed across all four corridors. It is the core, cross-cutting mandate of AGCOT, which is to develop “inclusive, sustainable, and commercially viable agricultural value chains” ²⁸ and to champion “inclusion and transformation of smallholder farmers”.²⁸

The table below outlines this new national framework, connecting the abstract corridors to the concrete policy directives unveiled at HoBIS.

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Table 3: AGCOT: The New National Framework (Launched April 2025)

Corridor	Key Regions	Strategic Focus & Link to HoBIS Speech
Northern	Arusha, Kilimanjaro, Manyara, Tanga	Horticulture, Floriculture, Spices. This is the direct implementation zone for Pinda’s directive to revive Arusha’s dormant flower farms and integrate them with the BBT youth programme.11
Southern (SAGCOT)	Morogoro, Iringa, Mbeya, Njombe, etc.	Food Basket, Grains, High-Value Crops. The “proof of concept.” Will continue to drive export value while also benefiting from the new push for domestic market professionalization.28
Central	Dodoma, Singida, Tabora, Lake Zone	Grains, Livestock, Edible Oils. A vast new corridor focused on national food security and import substitution (e.g., wheat, edible oils) 34, which is the heart of the 90% domestic market.29
Mtwara	Lindi, Mtwara, Ruvuma	Cashews, Oilseeds, Marine. Will be developed with its own Investment Blueprint to unlock new value chains for both the domestic and export markets.29

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Beyond the Farmer: Rebranding Agriculture as a Modern Ecosystem

Perhaps the most visionary part of Pinda’s address was a crucial, forward-looking reflection on the very definition of “agriculture.” It was an ideological component aimed squarely at the nation’s youth. “Kwenye kilimo,” Pinda’s speech read, “tunaendeleza uchumi kwa ujumla wake” (In agriculture, we are developing the economy in its totality) ..

He then articulated a new narrative for the sector, one that moves far beyond the ‘jembe’ (hoe). “Watu huwa wanazungumzia… mkulima, afisa ugani” (People always talk about… the farmer, the extension officer), he noted. But, he argued, as agriculture commercializes, it creates a spectrum of high-skill, non-farm jobs ..

“Uta-hitaji wahasibu, uta-hitaji madereva, uta-hitaji madaktari… ukiingia kwenye kilimo ndio unahitaji mapilot na wanaotoa huduma,” he declared. (You will need accountants, you will need drivers, you will need doctors… when you enter agriculture, that’s when you need pilots and service providers) ..

This narrative is the strategic solution to the BBT programme’s single greatest challenge: the “negative perceptions and attitude” that Tanzania’s youth hold toward agriculture.¹⁵ Research confirms their skepticism; agricultural work is associated with the “lowest monthly incomes” in the country.³⁵ Young, educated Tanzanians are not interested in becoming a “mkulima” (traditional farmer).

Pinda’s speech was not just a simple economic observation about multipliers.³⁶ He was, in effect, weaponizing this economic concept as a communications strategy to achieve the BBT’s core goal: to “rebrand agriculture”.¹⁵

He was speaking directly to educated, unemployed youth and their families, and he was providing a new script. The message was: “We are not asking you to hold a hoe. We are asking you to be the accountant at a new food processing plant. The logistician managing the cold chain at the port.³⁸ The software developer for the HortiMarket app.²⁶ The drone pilot for a precision agriculture firm.³⁹ The cargo plane pilot ²¹ flying fresh avocados to Dubai.”

This narrative is the ideological glue for the entire national plan. It reframes agriculture not as a “sector” but as a “modern ecosystem” full of the high-skill, high-wage, non-farm jobs that the modern economy is already demanding, from “Agricultural Value Chain Finance Experts” ⁴⁰ to “Soybean Value Chain Project Managers”.⁴¹ It aligns perfectly with Kirenga’s own long-held philosophy that transformation requires investment not just in farming, but in infrastructure, processing, and storage.⁴²

Conclusion: A Dual Strategy Fraught with Promise and Peril

Hon. Mizengo Pinda’s keynote address at HoBIS 2025 was a watershed moment. It was not a speech; it was the formal unveiling of a comprehensive, vertically-integrated national strategy. The President’s $100 billion vision for agriculture is no longer just a target; it is now backed by a coherent and interlocking machine.³¹

The promise of this new vision is its comprehensiveness. It has:

1. A Strategic Architect in Pinda’s Presidential Food and Agriculture Delivery Council.⁸
2. An Implementation Engine in Kirenga’s national AGCOT.²⁸
3. A Dual-Pillar Plan to unlock both idle physical assets (the Arusha farms) ¹¹ and idle systemic assets (the 90% domestic market).²¹
4. A Human Capital Strategy to power it in the form of the BBT youth programme.¹⁵
5. A Modern Narrative to sell it to a new generation, focusing on the high-skill, non-farm jobs of a modern ecosystem ..

Yet, the elegance of this plan is matched only by the immensity of its difficulty. The government has effectively declared a two-front war on its biggest and most entrenched agricultural challenges. The risk of failure in execution is high.

On the first front (the Farms/Youth pillar): The strategy is already “at risk”.¹⁷ The chosen vehicle, the BBT programme, is demonstrably stalled, underfunded, and lacks a proper legal and financial foundation, according to a national audit and legal analysis.¹⁷ The process of repossessing land, even from non-performing investors, is a legally and politically perilous one.¹² Pinda’s speech may have forced the issue, but the bureaucratic inertia it seeks to overcome is immense.

On the second front (the Domestic Market pillar): This strategy requires nothing less than the professionalization of 4.5 million fragmented smallholder farmers ⁴ and overcoming decades of entrenched infrastructure deficits.⁴ It means finding a way to eliminate a catastrophic 40% post-harvest loss rate.²⁵ A digital app like HortiMarket is a brilliant and necessary first step ²⁶, but it is not a silver bullet for a lack of rural roads, cold storage chains, and affordable logistics.

The HoBIS 2025 summit has, perhaps for the first time, ended the debate on “what” Tanzania’s agricultural vision is. Hon. Pinda and Mr. Kirenga have laid it out in exhaustive, undeniable detail. The $100 billion question that now hangs over Dar es Salaam, Arusha, and every new corridor in between is one of execution.

Can the state’s new, ambitious machinery—the Presidential Council, the national AGCOT, and the revamped BBT—win this two-front war against its own bureaucratic inertia and the harsh, on-the-ground realities of a 90% fragmented market? The answer will define Tanzania’s economic trajectory for the next generation.

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