Drought in East Africa and the Anticipation of Heavy Rainfall

East Africa is currently facing a severe drought, with drier-than-usual conditions expected to persist between January and March 2025. This follows a period of mixed rainfall patterns from October to December 2024, with deficits in central Somalia and northeastern Kenya, and wetter-than-average conditions in other parts of the region. The drought has had a significant impact on the region, with more than 64 million people in the Horn of Africa requiring humanitarian assistance due to conflicts and climate shocks.  

Current Drought Situation in East Africa

The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad) Climate Prediction and Applications Center forecasts drier-than-usual conditions for much of East Africa, including Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda, Kenya, Burundi, and Tanzania. This is largely attributed to the La Niña conditions, which are expected to persist into April 2025. The Horn of Africa region is particularly vulnerable to climate change, with drought, floods, and pests becoming more common amid rising temperatures.  

Southern Tanzania and southwestern Uganda are expected to experience wetter-than-usual conditions, highlighting the increased climate variability in the region. In Somalia, the drought has led to low crop production and a rapid decline in pastoral vegetation. The situation is particularly dire in southern Somalia, where an estimated 4.4 million people (almost one in every four) face acute food insecurity due to the combined effects of drought, conflict, and high food prices.  

The 2021 drought in East Africa had a devastating impact on livestock, with a 70% reduction in average precipitation compared to seasonal norms. This highlights the vulnerability of pastoral communities who rely heavily on livestock for their livelihoods.  

Historical Data on Drought and Heavy Rains in East Africa

East Africa has a long history of grappling with cycles of drought and heavy rainfall. These events have been recorded in various forms, from systematic rainfall data collection that began in the 1830s for coastal Algeria and southwest South Africa to studies of laminated sediment from lakes in Ethiopia. These records provide valuable insights into the region’s climatic variability and the challenges posed by droughts and floods.  

The 2020-2022 La Niña event stands out as particularly severe due to its high intensity and three-year duration, resulting in at least four consecutive failed rainfall seasons. This prolonged dry spell had devastating consequences, with over 30 million people across Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia facing drought-related food insecurity. The drought’s impact was further compounded by factors such as conflict, displacement, and economic hardship.  

However, the historical record reveals even more protracted and severe droughts in the region’s past. The drought of the 1820s and 1830s, for example, is believed to be the worst of the last 200 years, with prolonged famine affecting areas including Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda. Similarly, the “lwaya” (crocodile) famine around 1900 in Kenya highlights the devastating impact of multi-year droughts on communities.  

Key Insight: These historical events, along with the recent La Niña-induced drought and subsequent severe flooding in 2023-2024, underscore a concerning trend: the increasing frequency and intensity of droughts and floods in East Africa. This trend, largely attributed to climate change, poses significant challenges for the region’s future, with implications for food security, livelihoods, and overall well-being.  

Expected Heavy Rains

Despite the ongoing drought, there is an anticipation of heavy rainfall in parts of East Africa. The Kenya Meteorological Department has issued an alert for heavy rains in several parts of the country, including the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley, and the Highlands West and East of the Rift Valley. The rainfall is expected to exceed 30 millimeters in 24 hours and spread to parts of northwestern Kenya.  

The expected heavy rains are consistent with the long rains season, which typically occurs from March to May in East Africa. However, the distribution of rainfall is expected to be erratic and extreme. While some areas may experience above-average rainfall, others may face below-average rainfall, leading to concerns over water shortages and prolonged dry spells. Wetter-than-normal conditions are expected over western and southwestern Kenya, eastern Uganda, eastern South Sudan, western Ethiopia, and most parts of Tanzania.  

Potential Impact of Heavy Rains on the Drought

While the expected heavy rains may provide some relief to drought-stricken areas, there are also concerns about their potential negative impacts. The sudden shift from drought to heavy rainfall could lead to flooding and landslides, particularly in regions with dry and less absorbent soil. This could further exacerbate the humanitarian crisis in the region, displacing people and damaging infrastructure. Urbanization further exacerbates the impact of heavy rains and flooding, as densely populated areas, especially informal settlements, are often ill-equipped to handle excessive rainfall.  

Moreover, the heavy rains may not be sufficient to alleviate the drought in all areas. Some regions may still experience below-average rainfall, leading to continued water shortages and challenges for agriculture and livestock. The erratic nature of the rainfall could also make it difficult for communities to recover from the drought and prepare for future climate shocks. It is crucial to consider the potential impact of heavy rains on vulnerable populations, such as women, children, and the elderly, who may have limited access to resources and support during emergencies.  

Efforts to Address the Drought

Various efforts are being made to address the drought in East Africa. Humanitarian organizations are providing assistance to affected communities, including food aid, water trucking, and support for livelihoods. For example, Send Relief is hosting emergency food distributions and providing other necessities to vulnerable communities, including undernourished children, expectant mothers, and the elderly. Similarly, UHR is coordinating water-trucking services to remote villages where water sources have dried up, aiming to reach 25,000 children and their families weekly.  

Governments in the region are also implementing measures to mitigate the impact of the drought, such as social protection programs and investments in water infrastructure. Climate-smart agriculture technologies, such as those providing information on access to water and climate, are being implemented to enhance resilience.  

Key Insight: While these efforts are crucial for providing immediate relief and support, there is a growing need to shift the focus from short-term emergency responses to long-term resilience-building measures. This requires a more comprehensive and sustainable approach that addresses the underlying vulnerabilities of communities and strengthens their capacity to adapt to the changing climate.  

For instance, investing in drought-tolerant crops, improving water management systems, and promoting sustainable land use practices can help communities better withstand future droughts. Early warning systems and community-based disaster preparedness programs can also play a vital role in reducing the impact of droughts and floods.  

This transition towards long-term resilience requires increased investment and collaboration between governments, local communities, and international organizations. By working together, it is possible to build a more drought-resilient future for East Africa.

However, the challenges are significant. The scale of the drought and the ongoing humanitarian crisis require a sustained and coordinated response. There is a need for increased funding and investment in long-term resilience-building measures to help communities adapt to the changing climate and reduce their vulnerability to future droughts.

Climate Change and the East Africa Drought Crisis

Climate change is a significant factor contributing to the drought in East Africa. Rising temperatures are leading to increased evaporation rates, exacerbating drought conditions. Climate change is also projected to cause more frequent and intense El Niño events, leading to increased variability in rainfall patterns.  

The impact of climate change on drought in East Africa is compounded by other factors, such as poverty, population growth, and land degradation. These factors increase the vulnerability of communities to climate shocks and make it more difficult for them to adapt to changing conditions.  

Furthermore, climate change is projected to significantly alter rainfall patterns in East Africa. While overall precipitation amounts may increase, with projections indicating an increase between 15 and 136 mm per year under RCP6.0, the distribution and intensity of rainfall are expected to change. This could lead to more frequent and intense droughts in some areas and increased flooding in others.  

Key Insight: The interplay between climate change, El Niño, and the Indian Ocean Dipole creates a complex and unpredictable scenario for rainfall variability in East Africa. This variability poses significant challenges for water resource management, agriculture, and disaster preparedness. Understanding these complex interactions is crucial for developing effective adaptation strategies and building resilience to future climate shocks.  

The projected decline in per capita water availability due to climate change and population growth further adds to the challenges facing East Africa. This underscores the need for sustainable water management practices and investments in water infrastructure to ensure access to this vital resource.  

Synthesis and Conclusion

The drought in East Africa is a complex and multifaceted issue with significant humanitarian and environmental consequences. While the expected heavy rains may provide some relief, they also pose risks of flooding and may not be sufficient to alleviate the drought in all areas. The historical data and the impact of climate change highlight the need for a long-term and comprehensive approach to address the drought and build resilience to future climate shocks.

Addressing the drought requires a multi-pronged approach that includes:

• Increased humanitarian assistance: Providing immediate support to affected communities, including food aid, water, and healthcare.
• Investment in water infrastructure: Developing sustainable water management systems to improve access to water resources.
• Climate change adaptation: Implementing measures to help communities adapt to the changing climate, such as drought-resistant crops and early warning systems.
• Addressing underlying vulnerabilities: Tackling poverty, inequality, and land degradation to reduce the vulnerability of communities to climate shocks.

By taking a comprehensive and collaborative approach, it is possible to mitigate the impact of the drought, build resilience to future climate shocks, and support sustainable development in East Africa