Kilimokwanza.org 2026- R1

1. Executive Summary

The 2024-2025 period represents a pivotal juncture for the food systems of East Africa, characterized by a divergent yet interconnected trajectory of structural transformation across Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Uganda, and Rwanda. Following the debilitating sequence of climatic shocks—most notably the prolonged drought of 2020-2023 and the subsequent El Niño-induced floods of early 2024—the region has entered a phase of aggressive policy recalibration and infrastructure deployment. This report provides an exhaustive intelligence update, synthesizing data from over 600 indicators to analyze the systemic shifts in livestock, fisheries, industrial crops, input markets, and infrastructure that are redefining the region’s agrifood landscape.

The overriding theme of the 2024-2025 period is the tension between national food sovereignty and regional trade integration. While the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) promises borderless commerce, national policies have increasingly turned inward to secure domestic food supplies and stabilize inflation. Tanzania has emerged as the region’s undisputed granary, leveraging its National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA) and a massive fertilizer subsidy program to achieve a historic maize surplus of over 11 million tonnes, positioning itself as the stabilizer of choice for deficit neighbors.¹ Conversely, Kenya faces a complex dichotomy: successful state interventions have revived the sugar sector to near self-sufficiency, yet high production costs in the feed sector threaten to hollow out its poultry and dairy industries, necessitating a strategic reliance on imports from Uganda and Tanzania.²

Ethiopia is undergoing a seismic macroeconomic restructuring. The flotation of the birr in 2024, while intended to correct foreign exchange distortions, has spiked input costs, complicating the government’s ambitious import substitution industrialization (ISI) agenda in wheat and edible oils.⁴ Meanwhile, Uganda continues to pursue an agro-industrialization strategy, with milk production surging to 5.4 billion liters, though its export potential is frequently capped by non-tariff barriers (NTBs) within the East African Community (EAC).⁵ Rwanda remains the region’s laboratory for high-value export efficiency, pioneering intensive systems in pyrethrum, silk, and horticulture cold chains to overcome its land constraints.⁶

Technological disruption is no longer theoretical but operational. From the e-voucher system registering 6 million farmers in Kenya ⁸ to the Hello Tractor mechanization platform servicing 2.5 million farmers ⁹, digital infrastructure is becoming the primary delivery mechanism for inputs and services. However, the “first mile” remains a challenge, with counterfeit seeds in Uganda and regulatory bottlenecks in Ethiopia’s seed sector persisting as drags on productivity.

Infrastructure has moved from planning to operationalization. The Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) network is slowly knitting the region together, with Tanzania’s electric line commencing operations and Uganda finally signing a construction deal to link to the coast.¹⁰ Simultaneously, the competition between the Port of Mombasa and the Port of Dar es Salaam is driving efficiency gains that are lowering the cost of moving agricultural bulk.¹²

This report offers a granular, sector-by-sector analysis of these trends, providing stakeholders with the intelligence required to navigate a region that is rapidly transitioning from subsistence to commercial complexity.

2. Macroeconomic Context and Policy Environment

The agrifood systems of East Africa function within a volatile macroeconomic framework defined by post-COVID recovery efforts, debt distress, and shifting monetary policies. The 2024-2025 fiscal year has seen governments attempt to balance fiscal consolidation with the urgent need for development expenditure to insulate their agricultural bases from climate change.

2.1 Economic Resilience Amidst Fiscal Tightening

Despite global geopolitical instability and supply chain disruptions, East Africa remains a growth pole for the continent. The African Development Bank projects regional growth to stabilize at 4.0% in 2024-25, up from 3.1% in 2023.¹³ This resilience is largely agrarian; the sector’s recovery from drought has driven GDP expansion in Tanzania, Uganda, and Rwanda. However, currency depreciation against the US dollar has imported inflation, making essential inputs like fertilizer and fuel significantly more expensive for smallholder farmers.

Ethiopia: The Reform Agenda

Ethiopia’s economy grew by 7.1% in 2022/23, with agriculture contributing 6.4% to this figure.4 The federal government’s decision to float the birr in July 2024 was a historic pivot aimed at attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) and resolving chronic foreign exchange shortages. While long-term positive, the immediate impact has been a sharp depreciation, raising the cost of imported fertilizer and machinery. The federal budget for the 2023/24 fiscal year (EFY 2016) allocated ETB 801.7 billion, a nominal increase, but high inflation (averaging nearly 30%) meant a real-term decline in purchasing power.14 The allocation to pro-poor sectors, including agriculture, dropped to 33% from 59% in 2019/20, as debt service (ETB 159 billion) and defense spending crowded out development funds.15

Kenya: Balancing Debt and Development

Kenya’s economy rebounded with 5.6% growth in 2023, supported by a robust recovery in agriculture which grew by 5.6% after contracting in previous years.16 The 2024 Budget Policy Statement reflects a constrained fiscal environment, with the government prioritizing debt repayment. However, the Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA) has ring-fenced agricultural subsidies. The National Treasury allocated Ksh 10 billion specifically for the fertilizer subsidy program in the 2024/25 budget to maintain the momentum of the previous year’s bumper harvest.17 Additionally, Ksh 11.3 billion was earmarked for the Blue Economy and fisheries, signaling a diversification of the food security strategy beyond maize.17

Tanzania: Stability and Strategic Investment

Tanzania has maintained a stable macroeconomic environment with a growth rate of 5.1% in 2023.18 Agriculture remains the backbone, contributing 20.6% to this growth. The government’s fiscal discipline has kept the debt-to-GDP ratio at a manageable 30.8%, allowing for aggressive increases in the development budget. The Ministry of Agriculture’s budget for FY 2023/2024 was increased to TZS 970.79 billion, a 29.2% rise from the previous year, with massive allocations for irrigation infrastructure and the National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA).19 This spending is directly correlated with the country’s emergence as a regional surplus food producer.

Uganda: Agro-Industrialization Push

Uganda recorded strong growth of 6.1% in FY 2023/24, driven by the industrial and services sectors, but underpinned by a 5.4% growth in agriculture.20 The government’s strategy focuses on “full monetization of the economy,” attempting to move subsistence farmers into the commercial sphere. However, the budget for the Agro-Industrialization program faces cuts, projected to decline by 10.6% in FY 2024/25 due to a reduction in external financing.21 This poses a risk to the momentum of value-addition projects unless private sector credit, which currently stands at only 11.3% for agriculture, can fill the gap.22

Rwanda: High-Growth Trajectory

Rwanda continues to outperform peers with a projected GDP growth of 6.6% in 2024 and 7.1% in 2025.23 The agricultural sector, though growing more slowly than services, expanded by 5% in 2024. The government’s PSTA 5 strategy (2024-2029) is ambitious, targeting an increase in agricultural exports to over $1.5 billion by 2029.24 Rwanda’s budget execution is highly efficient, with significant resources directed towards de-risking private investment in high-value export crops like horticulture and tea.

2.2 The Maputo Declaration Compliance

The 2003 Maputo Declaration commitment to allocate 10% of national budgets to agriculture remains a critical benchmark.

• Tanzania is rapidly approaching this target through its massive irrigation and subsidy outlays.
• Rwanda consistently meets or nears the target, with high alignment between policy and expenditure.
• Kenya and Uganda continue to lag, often allocating between 3-5% when debt servicing is factored in, relying heavily on private sector and donor funding to drive sector growth.
• Ethiopia‘s compliance has regressed in percentage terms due to the ballooning costs of debt and security, despite the absolute importance of agriculture to its economy.²⁵

3. Livestock Sector: Production, Trade, and Resilience

The livestock sector in East Africa is characterized by a stark dichotomy: high-potential production systems versus debilitating input costs and climate vulnerability. The region is home to Africa’s largest livestock herds, yet commercialization rates remain low.

3.1 Dairy Sector Dynamics

Cost Competitiveness and Trade Flows:

The cost of milk production is the primary driver of regional trade dynamics. Kenya, despite having a well-developed processing sector, suffers from high production costs. In 2024, the average cost of producing a liter of milk in Kenya was KES 36.2, rising to KES 44.1 for zero-grazing systems.27 This is driven by the high cost of commercial feeds and fodder. In contrast, Uganda produces milk at a significantly lower cost, estimated at 60% of Kenya’s cost, due to favorable climatic conditions for open grazing and lower labor costs.28

This disparity has led to Uganda producing 5.4 billion liters of milk in 2024, creating a massive surplus for export.⁵ However, protectionist non-tariff barriers (NTBs) imposed by Kenya have disrupted this trade. In 2024, Kenya restricted import permits for Ugandan dairy products to protect its domestic farmers, forcing Ugandan processors to look elsewhere.

Strategic Pivots:

• Brookside Dairy’s Diversification: Facing regulatory bottlenecks in the EAC, Brookside Uganda secured a landmark deal in 2024/25 to export powdered milk to Algeria.²⁹ This move signifies a major strategic pivot for East African dairy, looking beyond the EAC to the broader African market under the AfCFTA framework.
• Rwanda’s Powdered Milk Capacity: In a move to reduce import dependency and manage seasonal gluts, Inyange Industries inaugurated a $54 million milk powder plant in Nyagatare in July 2024.³⁰ The plant has a processing capacity of 650,000 liters per day and will produce whole milk powder, skimmed milk powder, and ghee, targeting both the domestic market and exports to neighboring DRC.³¹

3.2 Meat Value Chains: Beef and Poultry

Beef:

Ethiopia maintains the largest cattle herd in the region (70 million+), but off-take rates are low. The government’s “Yelemat Tirufat” campaign aims to modernize the sector for export to the Middle East. Tanzania is also aggressively commercializing its beef sector. The Tanzania Livestock Master Plan (TLMP) has catalyzed investments such as the Hester Biosciences vaccine manufacturing plant, critical for meeting sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) standards for export markets.32 In Uganda, beef production is forecasted to grow, but the sector remains informal; a 2024 study identified ARIMA models as the best fit for forecasting production, predicting steady but slow growth.33

Poultry and the Feed Crisis:

The poultry sector is facing a existential crisis driven by feed costs. In Kenya, the cost of feed accounts for 60-70% of production costs. A 2024 inquiry by the Competition Authority of Kenya (CAK) revealed that the animal feed market is an oligopoly dominated by four companies, leading to price rigidity that hurts farmers.34 Consequently, many smallholder poultry farmers have exited the business. Conversely, Tanzania has leveraged its bumper maize and sunflower harvests to lower feed costs, boosting its poultry production and allowing it to export eggs and day-old chicks to Zambia and the DRC.35 Rwanda is also expanding its poultry sector, with the government distributing over 150,000 pullets to women farmers in 2023/24 to boost nutrition and income.36

3.3 Pastoralism: The Climate Whiplash

Pastoralist communities in the Horn of Africa (Southern Ethiopia, Northern Kenya, Somalia) are trapped in a cycle of “climate whiplash.” After enduring the worst drought in 40 years (2020-2023), the region experienced devastating El Niño floods in late 2023/early 2024, which killed livestock and destroyed water infrastructure.³⁷ As of late 2024, forecasts of a La Niña event predict a return to drought conditions in early 2025.³⁸ This extreme volatility is driving the adoption of resilience mechanisms. Index-Based Livestock Insurance (IBLI) is being scaled up. Pula Advisors, in partnership with the Kenyan government and insurers like Takaful, is expanding hybrid insurance products that provide payouts for fodder purchase before animals die, a shift from asset replacement to asset protection.³⁹

4. Fisheries and Aquaculture: The Blue Economy Pivot

The fisheries sector is undergoing a definitive structural shift from a reliance on stagnation wild capture fisheries to the rapid, technology-driven expansion of aquaculture.

4.1 Cage Farming Revolution in Lake Victoria

Cage aquaculture has emerged as the most dynamic segment of the fisheries economy.

• Uganda: A 2024 study of cage farming on Lake Victoria revealed it to be highly profitable, with farmers earning an average of UGX 8.9 million ($2,354) per season.⁴¹ The sector is attracting middle-class investment, moving beyond subsistence.
• Kenya: The number of cages in the Kenyan waters of Lake Victoria has exploded from ~1,600 in 2016 to over 5,000 in 2024.⁴² This intensification drove aquaculture output to 33,423 tonnes in 2024, a 5% increase from the previous year.⁴³
• Challenges: The rapid, unregulated expansion of cages is causing environmental stress. Recent studies link high cage density to localized water pollution and fish kills, prompting calls for stricter zoning and environmental impact assessments.⁴⁴

4.2 Tanzania: Seaweed and Deep-Sea Fishing

Seaweed: In Zanzibar, seaweed farming employs over 25,000 people, primarily women. The sector produced stable volumes in 2024 despite climate change warming the shallow waters where seaweed grows. To combat this, the government is promoting deep-water farming techniques and value addition. New processing plants are being established to convert raw seaweed into carrageenan and cosmetics, capturing higher value than raw exports.45

Deep-Sea Fishing: In a major policy shift, Tanzania began licensing foreign deep-sea fishing vessels in 2024, charging $70,000 per license.46 This aims to monetize the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and generate revenue while the local fleet capacity is gradually built up.

4.3 Ethiopia: The Sleeping Giant Wakes

Despite being landlocked, Ethiopia has immense freshwater potential. The Ministry of Agriculture launched the Fisheries and Aquaculture Master Plan (FAMP) 2024-2034, aiming to quintuple production from ~100,000 tonnes to 500,000 tonnes. The strategy relies on stocking the country’s vast reservoirs (including Koka and the GERD reservoir) and promoting pond aquaculture, although the lack of a commercial fish feed industry remains a critical bottleneck.⁴⁷

4.4 Rwanda: Commercializing the Lakes

Rwanda targets a production of 112,000 tonnes by 2024. The government is actively courting investors for cage farming on Lake Kivu and has implemented a new National Agriculture Insurance Scheme (NAIS) that covers aquaculture against climatic risks and diseases, a first for the region.⁴⁹ However, the high cost of imported fish feed (accounting for 70% of production costs) is a major constraint, prompting calls for investment in local feed mills.⁵¹

5. Industrial Crops and Agro-Processing

The industrial crop sector is witnessing a renaissance driven by government protectionism and a strategic push for import substitution.

5.1 Sugar: Kenya’s Rebound and Tanzania’s Expansion

Kenya: The sugar sector staged a remarkable recovery in 2024. Following a production collapse in 2023 due to cane shortages, strict enforcement of harvesting zoning by the Agriculture and Food Authority (AFA) and favorable rains led to a 40% surge in production, forecast to reach 750,000 MT in the 2024/25 marketing year.⁵² This recovery reduced sugar imports by 45% in the third quarter of 2024, saving vital foreign exchange.⁵³ The enactment of the Sugar Act 2024 provides a robust regulatory framework to sustain these gains.²

Tanzania: The country is pursuing a goal of 700,000 tonnes by 2025/26 to achieve complete self-sufficiency. Major investments include the expansion of Kilombero Sugar Company, supported by the government’s stable policy environment for Special Economic Zones (SEZs).⁵²

Uganda: Continues to be a surplus producer, with Kakira Sugar diversifying into ethanol production to hedge against sugar price volatility. Uganda remains a key supplier to Kenya and South Sudan, exporting over $130 million worth of sugar annually, though trade politics often interfere.⁵⁵

5.2 Coffee and Tea: Value Addition Imperative

Kenya’s tea sector, a global heavyweight, is under pressure from rising costs and stagnant global prices. Reforms in 2024 focused on the Tea Act, enforcing the sale of value-added tea rather than bulk exports. In coffee, direct sales at the Nairobi Coffee Exchange are growing as farmers bypass the auction system to secure better prices from international buyers.57

Rwanda and Uganda are heavily investing in coffee washing stations to improve quality. Rwanda’s coffee exports generated record revenues in 2023/24, supported by NAEB’s aggressive marketing of specialty coffee in Europe and Asia.58

5.3 Cotton and Textiles: Tanzania’s “Farm to Fashion”

Tanzania is spearheading the region’s textile revival. The “Building Productive Capacities” initiative aims to increase local processing of cotton from 20% to 50%. The government is revitalizing ginneries in the Western Cotton Growing Area and incentivizing textile mills in EPZs to source local lint.⁵⁹ In contrast, Uganda’s cotton sector struggles with low ginning capacity utilization (averaging 10%), limiting its ability to capture value from the textile supply chain.⁶⁰

5.4 High-Value Niche Crops

• Pyrethrum (Rwanda): Rwanda remains a global leader, producing over 15% of the world’s pyrethrum. Horizon Sopyrwa, the processing monopoly, has increased capacity and export revenues reached $6.3 million in 2021/22. The PSTA 5 strategy targets further acreage expansion in the Northern Province.⁷
• Silk (Rwanda/Ethiopia): Rwanda is developing a nascent sericulture industry, exporting dried cocoons and raw silk to Asia. While volumes are small (~17 tonnes), it represents a high-value diversification strategy supported by the National Sericulture Centre.⁶

6. Input Markets: Digitization, Sovereignty, and Technology

Access to inputs is the primary lever for productivity growth. 2024 has seen a massive shift towards digital delivery systems and local manufacturing to insulate farmers from global price shocks.

6.1 Fertilizer: Subsidy Reforms and Manufacturing

Kenya: The E-Voucher subsidy program has achieved massive scale, registering over 6 million farmers by 2024.⁸ By digitizing the subsidy, the government has improved targeting and reduced leakage. The program reduced fertilizer prices from Ksh 6,500 to Ksh 2,500 per bag, a key factor in the maize production rebound. However, studies indicate this has “crowded out” private sector retailers, disrupting the commercial distribution network.⁶²

Tanzania: The Bulk Procurement System (BPS) continues to effectively lower import costs through economies of scale. In 2023/24, the government subsidized 563,000 tonnes of fertilizer, aiming to reach 800,000 tonnes in the next cycle.¹ This efficient input delivery is the engine behind Tanzania’s grain surplus.

Ethiopia: In a landmark move for sovereignty, the Ethiopian government signed a $2.5 billion agreement with Dangote Group in 2025 to build a urea fertilizer plant in Gode. Once operational, this plant will produce 3 million metric tonnes annually, ending Ethiopia’s dependence on fertilizer imports and saving hundreds of millions in forex.⁶³

6.2 Seed Systems: The Battle for Quality

Uganda: Counterfeit seeds remain a plague, with 2024 studies estimating that 30-40% of seeds on the market are fake.65 This severely depresses yields and erodes farmer trust in improved varieties.

Ethiopia: The new Seed Proclamation 1288/2023, fully implemented in 2024, liberalizes the sector, allowing private companies to engage in seed quality control and marketing. This breaks the long-standing state monopoly and aims to address the chronic shortage of Early Generation Seed (EGS).66

Rwanda: The country hosted the National Seed Congress 2024, focusing on harmonizing regulations to boost seed trade. Rwanda has achieved near self-sufficiency in maize seed through public-private partnerships that incentivize local multipliers.67

6.3 Mechanization and AgTech

Mechanization: Hello Tractor continues to dominate the “Uber for tractors” space in Kenya and Uganda. In 2024, the platform facilitated services for over 2.5 million farmers, increasing incomes by an estimated 227%.68 The company secured $750,000 in debt financing to expand its Pay-As-You-Go tractor ownership model in Northern Kenya.69

AgTech Consolidation: The sector is maturing, with a shift from growth to profitability. Twiga Foods, a Kenyan B2B unicorn, paused operations in late 2024 to restructure its logistics and reduce its cash burn, shifting towards a lighter-asset model.70 This signals a market correction where unit economics are now paramount. Meanwhile, Vodacom Tanzania’s M-Kulima platform has grown to 3.2 million users, proving the scalability of digital payments and extension services.71

7. Infrastructure and Logistics: The Connectivity Revolution

Efficient logistics are the arteries of the food system. The region is witnessing an infrastructure race to connect production zones to ports and processing hubs.

7.1 The Corridor Wars: Rail and Ports

Standard Gauge Railway (SGR):

• Tanzania: The electric SGR from Dar es Salaam to Dodoma began operations in mid-2024. This line is a strategic threat to the Northern Corridor, offering a faster route for cargo to Rwanda, Burundi, and DRC.⁷²
• Uganda: After a decade of delay, Uganda signed a contract with Turkish firm Yapi Merkezi in October 2024 to construct the Malaba-Kampala SGR leg, committing to link with Kenya’s system to reduce cargo transit times and costs.¹¹

Port Competition:

The Port of Dar es Salaam, bolstered by DP World’s investment and management, is aggressively expanding capacity. Efficiency metrics in 2024 show Dar es Salaam closing the gap on Mombasa, reducing ship turnaround times significantly. This has led to a shift in transit cargo, with Rwanda and Burundi increasingly favoring the Central Corridor over the Northern Corridor.12

7.2 Cold Chain and Storage Infrastructure

Post-harvest losses remain high, driving investment in cold chain logistics. The market for cold chain logistics in Kenya is projected to reach $3.39 billion by 2025.⁷⁴

• Tanzania: The government, with US support, launched a $24 million initiative in 2024 to tackle post-harvest losses in horticulture.⁷⁵
• Kenya: The Warehouse Receipt System (WRS) Council certified new warehouses in 2024. However, uptake by smallholder farmers remains low due to trust issues and the logistics cost of delivering grain to certified depots. A 2024 feasibility study by FSD Kenya highlighted that flexible financing products are needed to drive WRS adoption.⁷⁶

7.3 Agro-Industrial Parks

Ethiopia: The Integrated Agro-Industrial Parks (IAIPs) in Bure, Bulbula, and Yirgalem are now fully operational. These parks are attracting investors in edible oil refining, avocado processing, and dairy, serving as the hubs for the country’s export diversification strategy.78

Kenya: The County Aggregation and Industrial Parks (CAIPs) project, launched in 2023, aims to establish processing hubs in all 47 counties. While some counties like Nyamira are progressing, an audit in 2024 revealed significant delays and funding gaps in others, threatening the project’s timeline.79

8. Cross-Cutting Themes: Climate, Trade, and Urbanization

8.1 Climate Resilience and Carbon Markets

Kenya has emerged as a global leader in agricultural carbon credits. Projects like the Northern Kenya Grassland Carbon Project and the Western Kenya Soil Carbon Project (KACP) are monetizing sustainable land management, providing a new revenue stream for farmers. The Climate Change (Carbon Markets) Regulations 2024 provide a robust legal framework to scale this market.⁸⁰ Regionally, the shift from El Niño floods to La Niña drought forecasts in late 2024 is driving the urgent adoption of drought-tolerant seeds and index insurance.³⁸

8.2 Intra-Regional Trade Dynamics

Intra-EAC trade is growing in volume but remains volatile due to political friction. Tanzania has solidified its role as the region’s food basket, exporting record volumes of maize and rice to Kenya, Uganda, and Burundi in 2024. In Q1 2024 alone, maize trade volumes surged as Uganda and Tanzania supplied the deficit in Kenya.⁸² However, the persistence of NTBs—such as the Kenya-Uganda milk wars and sporadic maize export bans by Tanzania—creates a high-risk environment for traders.

8.3 Urbanization and Dietary Shifts

Rapid urbanization is driving a “nutrition transition.” In Nairobi and Dar es Salaam, there is a marked shift towards processed foods (wheat, rice, edible oils) and away from traditional coarse grains. This shift is driving demand for imported wheat and processed dairy, creating opportunities for processors like Bakhresa (Tanzania) and Inyange (Rwanda), but also raising public health concerns regarding obesity and non-communicable diseases.⁸³

9. Conclusion and Outlook

The East African food system in 2024/25 is defined by resilience and strategic decoupling. Countries are increasingly prioritizing national food sovereignty (Tanzania’s grain reserves, Kenya’s fertilizer subsidies, Ethiopia’s local manufacturing) over reliance on volatile global markets.

Key Outlooks for 2025:

1. Climate Risk: The forecasted La Niña drought in early 2025 is the most immediate threat. Tanzania’s strategic grain reserves will be the region’s critical buffer.
2. Trade Logistics: The operationalization of Tanzania’s SGR will alter logistics cost structures for Rwanda and Burundi, potentially shifting trade volumes permanently away from the Northern Corridor.
3. Private Sector: Investors should expect a consolidated, efficiency-focused AgTech landscape and significant opportunities in local processing (dairy, edible oils) driven by protectionist policies and SEZ incentives.

Table 1: Comparative Cereal Production & Trade Outlook (2024/25)

Metric	Kenya	Tanzania	Uganda	Ethiopia
Maize Production	~3.8 – 4M MT (Recovering)	~11 – 12M MT (Surplus)	~3 – 4M MT (Stable)	~10 – 11M MT (Deficit/Self-sufficiency focus)
Trade Position	Net Importer (from TZ/UG)	Net Exporter (Regional Hub)	Net Exporter (to KE/SSD)	Net Importer (Wheat focus)
Key Policy Driver	Fertilizer Subsidy (E-voucher)	NFRA Storage Expansion	Agro-Industrialization	Import Substitution (Wheat/Oil)
Strategic Risk	High Feed Costs / La Niña	Export Bans (Ad-hoc)	NTBs / Trade Disputes	Forex Shortage / Conflict

Sources: USDA GAIN Reports ⁵², Ministry of Agriculture Reports ¹⁹, FEWS NET.⁸²

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