Kilimokwanza.org Africa’s Agricultural Competitiveness Report 2025: From Potential to Performance

Features | November 6, 2025
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Section 1: The Foundations of Competitiveness: Frameworks and Metrics

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1.1. Defining the Competitiveness Paradox: From Macro-Trade to Micro-Value Chains

The analysis of African agricultural competitiveness is defined by a central paradox: a continent endowed with immense potential, including 60% of the world’s uncultivated arable land, has simultaneously experienced a decline in its share of global agricultural exports.1 This decline in traditional, macro-level trade performance signals that a new, more nuanced understanding of competitiveness is required.

The analytical frameworks of key multilateral development partners have evolved accordingly. The focus has decisively shifted from national-level export volumes of raw commodities to the performance, efficiency, and inclusivity of agri-food value chains.4 The African Development Bank (AfDB) emphasizes this in its 10-year strategy, prioritizing “inclusive growth” and “transformation” rather than just export metrics.4 This strategy is operationalized through mechanisms like Agricultural Value Chain Financing (AVCF).8

Similarly, the World Bank’s modern framework identifies the promotion of value chains as the most effective approach to add value, lower transaction costs, diversify rural economies, and link smaller commercial businesses to domestic and global markets.5 This report, therefore, defines competitiveness not simply as the ability to export raw goods, but as the capacity to sustainably add value, improve efficiency across the entire chain, and integrate smallholders and firms into profitable domestic, regional, and global systems.5

1.2. Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) for Measuring Modern Competitiveness

To operationalize this evolved definition, the analysis of competitiveness relies on three primary categories of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs).

KPI 1: Productivity and Efficiency (Total Factor Productivity – TFP)

At its core, competitiveness is a function of production efficiency. The 2023 Global Agricultural Productivity (GAP) Report identifies Total Factor Productivity (TFP) as the critical metric for sustainably meeting global needs.11 TFP measures the efficiency with which inputs (land, labor, capital, fertilizer) are converted into outputs. A primary indicator of Africa’s low competitiveness is that its TFP growth has consistently fallen below the target rate required for sustainability, and its overall agricultural productivity dismal_ly lags* other developing regions.4

KPI 2: Trade Performance and Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA)

This KPI assesses external competitiveness by analyzing what is exported, not just how much. While tracking export market share remains important 12, modern analysis, such as that employed by the Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor (AATM), uses a new Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index. This metric provides a far more granular insight into which specific value chains possess a genuine comparative advantage against non-African competitors.13 This RCA analysis is a critical tool for identifying strategic sectors for public and private investment, including in the development of Special Economic Zones (SEZs).14

KPI 3: Value Chain Position and Integration (GVCs/RVCs)

This is arguably the most critical contemporary metric. It measures where in the Global Value Chain (GVC) a country operates.10 Low competitiveness is characterized by the export of raw materials; high competitiveness is demonstrated by the export of processed or semi-processed goods.

The African cotton value chain is the quintessential example of this “competitiveness failure.” The continent accounts for a significant 12% of global raw cotton exports but captures only 2% and 3%, respectively, of the semi-processed and processed cotton export markets.13 This is a direct, quantifiable measure of value—and competitiveness—being lost. Africa’s overall participation in GVCs remains significantly behind other regions.12 The World Bank’s analytical framework now explicitly links value chain participation, such as contract farming, to “upgrading” and productivity gains.16

Table 1: Key Frameworks for Measuring Agricultural Competitiveness

InstitutionCore Definition of CompetitivenessKey Metrics and Indicators
African Development Bank (AfDB)Inclusive growth, agricultural transformation, and food security, operationalized through value chains.4Value chain financing, Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones (SAPZ) implementation, inclusive growth.8
World BankThe efficiency of agri-food value chains, from farm to market, focusing on adding value and lowering transaction costs.5Value chain participation (e.g., contract farming), productivity “upgrading,” TFP, market access.5
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)Sustainable productivity, food security, and resilience, aligning with SDG and CAADP targets.18Productivity growth (yields), sustainable resource use, trade performance, food insecurity indicators.19
ReSAKSS / AKADEMIYA2063Trade performance at the commodity level, benchmarked against global competitors.15Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index, trade balances, export market share in specific value chains (e.g., cotton).13

Section 2: Continental State of Play: The 2024-2025 Competitiveness Landscape

2.1. The “Great Paradox”: Enduring Strengths vs. Systemic Weaknesses

The 2024-2025 baseline status of African agriculture is defined by the “great paradox”: a continent with unparalleled, inherent strengths that is failing to meet its own food and economic needs.

Core Strengths (The Potential):

  • Land: Africa possesses 60% of the world’s uncultivated arable land.2
  • Demographics: The continent has the world’s youngest and fastest-growing population, representing a vast future labor force and an enormous consumer base.1
  • Market Demand: This demographic dividend, combined with rapid urbanization and a growing middle class, is driving massive, sustained demand for food.2

Systemic Weaknesses (The Performance):

  • Food Insecurity: Despite its resource wealth, over 20% of the continent’s population (an estimated 257 million people) is undernourished.1 Recent reports indicate that more than 85% of Africans live with severe or moderate food insecurity.23
  • Import Dependency: The continent remains a net food importer 22 and a leading global importer of bulk commodities like wheat and rice.25 The annual food import bill, which drains vital foreign exchange, was projected to reach $110 billion USD by 2025.1
  • Low Productivity: The root cause of this paradox is a deep and persistent productivity deficit. The sector is characterized by low mechanization, limited irrigation 2, and cereal yields that lag significantly behind other developing regions.4

2.2. The 2024-2025 Macroeconomic Outlook: A Fragile Recovery

The continent’s agricultural sector operates within a highly fragile macroeconomic environment. While a modest economic recovery in 2024 was supported by improved agricultural output, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded the regional GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 3.8%.27

This fragile recovery is threatened by a convergence of shocks: persistent global trade tensions, tight international financial conditions, and, critically, severe climate-related disruptions.27 The 2024-2025 outlook is defined by mounting fiscal pressure, as declining development aid and rising debt service obligations constrain government budgets.27

This fiscal strain creates a debilitating feedback loop. Low agricultural competitiveness, which manifests as high food import bills, weakens the national current account and deepens the fiscal deficit.1 This mounting fiscal pressure, as noted in 2025 economic outlooks, directly prevents states from making the essential, large-scale public-good investments in infrastructure (such as rural roads and storage) and agricultural R&D.23 These investments are the very cure required to solve the low competitiveness that caused the fiscal strain in the first place.1 The continent is, in effect, trapped in a cycle where the symptom (fiscal strain) prevents the cure (investment in agricultural transformation).

Table 2: Africa’s Agricultural Competitiveness Scorecard (2024-2025)

IndicatorStatus / MetricSource(s)Implication
Arable LandHolds 60% of the world’s uncultivated arable land.2Unmatched potential for production expansion.
Youth PopulationWorld’s youngest and fastest-growing population.1A massive future labor force and consumer market.
Food Import BillProjected to reach $110 billion USD by 2025.1A critical drain on foreign reserves and a sign of production failure.
Undernourishment Rate~20% of the population (257 million people).1Systemic failure to ensure food security.
Cereal YieldConsiderably lags other developing regions.4A core indicator of low productivity and technological stagnation.
Intra-African Agri-TradeDwindling from its 2013 peak; <15% in 2022.22Fragmented markets; failure to create a regional food system.
TFP GrowthConsistently fallen below the target rate.11Inefficient use of existing resources, hindering sustainable growth.

Section 3: Systemic Constraints Hindering the Transformation Agenda

3.1. The Infrastructural Deficit: Market Access and Post-Harvest Losses (PHL)

The most significant physical barrier to market-led growth is the continent’s infrastructural deficit. High transport costs, stemming directly from inadequate rural road infrastructure, are a severe constraint on growth.29 This infrastructure gap creates fragmented markets, limits farmers’ access to markets where they can sell produce at fair prices, and increases the cost of inputs.29

This deficit is also the primary driver of staggering Post-Harvest Losses (PHL), which are a critical drain on the entire system.1 A 2024/2025 analysis of PHL identifies a complex web of contributing factors, including:

  • Poor roads and storage facilities, leading to mechanical and microbial damage.30
  • Lack of access to cold-chain infrastructure for perishable goods.32
  • The introduction of new high-yielding crop varieties that, paradoxically, have poor storage characteristics.32

The impact of PHL is threefold: it represents lost income for farmers, who are unable to sell what they grow 30; it leads to higher prices for urban consumers; and it is a major contributor to climate change, as rotting food releases significant greenhouse gas emissions.31

3.2. Climate and Environmental Vulnerability

Climate change is not a future-tense problem for African agriculture; it is an active, present-day constraint on competitiveness.33 Climate impacts directly threaten production systems through erratic rainfall and extreme weather.34

Furthermore, climate change acts as a risk multiplier, exacerbating other systemic challenges. Recent analyses (2024/2025) note that climate change is perceived to be increasing the incidence of pests (like the larger grain borer) and fungal diseases (such as aflatoxin contamination), both of which directly attack harvested crops in storage.32 This high climate vulnerability 2 makes an already high-risk sector 35 even more unstable, deterring the long-term private investment and insurance products needed for transformation.

3.3. The Smallholder Dilemma: The Triad of Land, Finance, and Technology

The transformation of African agriculture is contingent on transforming the productivity of its smallholder farmers, who constitute 80% of all producers.4 These farmers are systematically trapped by an interconnected triad of failures.

  1. Land: Insecure land tenure is a foundational barrier to investment.36 Uncertainty over land rights, which is rampant across sub-Saharan Africa, discourages farmers from making the long-term investments in soil health, irrigation, and water conservation that are essential for productivity gains.36 It also prevents land from being used as formal collateral to access credit.38
  2. Finance: Smallholders are systematically excluded from formal credit markets.36 Financial institutions perceive the sector as prohibitively risky, citing market access failures, climate vulnerability, and post-harvest losses.30 Farmers are therefore caught in a liquidity trap, unable to finance the purchase of quality inputs even when they are available.39
  3. Technology: The direct consequence of insecure land and a lack of finance is technological stagnation.28 Despite the proven existence of better seeds, fertilizers, and practices, adoption rates remain “dismal”.4

Recent analysis provides a critical explanation for this stagnation. Research finds that alleviating one of these constraints (e.g., providing microcredit) is not the most binding constraint and does not lead to transformational adoption; it only increases technology use by “small overall amounts”.39

The true “binding constraint” is identified as the “pervasive heterogeneity in the gross and net returns” to technology.28 This means a technology package (e.g., a new seed and fertilizer combination) that is highly profitable on a research station, or in one specific village, may be unprofitable for a farmer just 10 kilometers away due to minute differences in soil, moisture, or market access.28 The “Green Revolution” model, which relied on a single, scalable technology package, failed in Africa 4 precisely because it ignored this deep-seated heterogeneity. This failure of top-down solutions creates the imperative for the data-driven, localized, and adaptive solutions now emerging.

Table 3: Analysis of Core Constraints to Competitiveness

ConstraintKey ChallengeImpact on SmallholdersImpact on Agro-Processing
InfrastructurePoor rural roads, lack of electricity and cold storage.29Fragmented markets, low farm-gate prices, high input costs, high PHL.30Unreliable, inconsistent, and low-quality supply of raw materials; high logistics costs.
Land TenureInsecure access to land; weak land markets.36Discourages long-term investment (e.g., soil, irrigation); prevents use as collateral for credit.38Creates conflict and uncertainty for large-scale investments and out-grower schemes.
FinancePerceived high risk of sector (climate, market).30“Liquidity constraints” 39; inability to finance inputs; forced to sell low at harvest.Lack of capital for “missing middle” (e.g., storage, processing); limits scaling.
Climate ChangeIncreased weather variability, pests, and diseases.32Crop failure, yield loss, increased risk, vulnerability, and debt.Supply-chain disruptions; increased cost of risk management and raw materials.
Post-Harvest LossPoor handling, storage, and transport.3020-50% loss of potential income; food insecurity.Reduced quantity and quality of available produce, driving up processing costs.

Section 4: Primary Drivers of Competitiveness and Value Addition

4.1. The Digital Revolution: Agri-Tech as the Antidote to Heterogeneity

If deep-seated heterogeneity is the core problem 28, then data-driven, localized technology is the solution. The agri-tech market is poised to revolutionize African food systems by 2025.40 This revolution is not about a single “silver bullet” but about a suite of tools that allow for precision and adaptation.

  • Precision Farming & AI: This is the most direct counter to the heterogeneity problem. Using AI-driven crop management 40, drones for monitoring 41, and IoT sensors for real-time data on soil and water 42 allows for hyper-localized, data-driven decisions at the individual farm level. This optimizes farming for a specific plot of land, rather than a generic region. AI-powered weeding, for example, is projected to increase crop yields by up to 20% by 2025 by reducing labor costs and herbicide use.40
  • Market & Infrastructure Access Platforms: Digital platforms are providing novel solutions to physical and capital constraints.
  • Mechanization: “Tractor-as-a-service” models, such as Nigeria’s Hello Tractor, use a mobile platform to allow smallholders to rent tractors on demand.42 This solves the massive capital constraint of purchasing machinery.
  • Market Access: Platforms like Kenya’s Twiga Foods use data-driven systems to link farmers directly to markets, providing price transparency and access to inputs.42
  • Supply Chain: Blockchain technology is being deployed to increase transparency and efficiency in complex supply chains.42

Despite this promise, widespread adoption is still constrained by low digital literacy, fragmented policies 43, high costs, and a mistrust of data algorithms.45

4.2. Innovative Financing Models: De-Risking the Sector

This driver is the necessary antidote to the credit and risk constraints detailed in Section 3. New models are emerging to “de-risk” the sector and unlock private capital.

  • Blended Finance: This was a central theme of the 2023 AGRA Annual Report.35 This model uses public or philanthropic capital to absorb the “first-loss” risk of an investment. This “de-risks” the investment, making it commercially viable and attractive to larger pools of private capital.35
  • Fintech & Digital Finance: The agri-tech revolution is powered by fintech. The proliferation of mobile money (like M-Pesa 42) and other digital financial platforms is providing new pathways to credit, insurance, and payments for rural communities.2 These “innovative financing solutions,” such as pay-as-you-use leasing models, are what make capital-intensive technologies like tractors accessible to smallholders.40
  • Climate-Smart Models: Financing is becoming more holistic. Models like the Women Economic Empowerment through Climate Smart Agriculture (WEE-CSA) initiative in Kenya provide not just “seed capital” but also integrated training in climate-resilient farming, savings, and business management, leading to greater financial stability.35

4.3. The Push for Agro-Industrialization: SAPZs and PPPs

This driver is the primary solution to the “value addition failure” (KPI 3). The strategy is to build processing capacity on the continent.

  • AfDB’s SAPZ Program: The Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones (SAPZ) are a flagship initiative of the African Development Bank.17 This strategy involves creating new economic zones in rural areas that co-locate critical infrastructure (power, water, roads) with a cluster of food and agribusiness companies. This model is designed to bring processing capacity closer to farmers, providing a guaranteed market (offtake) for their produce, which in turn reduces post-harvest losses and builds highly competitive, localized food and agricultural value chains.17
  • Successful Private-Led Models: Vertically integrated private sector models are already proving the concept. Nigeria’s Babban Gona provides an end-to-end service to farmer groups, including training, credit, inputs, and marketing services.46 Tomato Jos, also in Nigeria, guarantees a fair price for tomatoes and provides logistics support, processing, and packaging for the domestic market. This model “removes the uncertain factor” for farmers, allowing them to focus on production.46

These three drivers—Digital, Finance, and Processing—are not independent. They are converging into a single, integrated “stack” for transformation. The digital platforms 42 provide the interface to organize and train smallholders. These platforms then integrate digital finance 40 to provide input loans. This financing enables farmers to adopt agri-tech (AI, mechanization 40). The resulting higher-quality, reliable harvest is then aggregated by the platform and channeled efficiently to the new agro-processing hubs, like the SAPZs.17 A new processing zone that is an “island” of infrastructure 29 will fail. It needs these digital and financial “bridges” to connect it to a modernized and reliable smallholder supply base.

Section 5: The Regional Divide: A Comparative Analysis of Agricultural Trade

The “single story” of African agriculture is false. A macro-regional trade analysis, based on 2024 Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor data, reveals at least four distinct competitive profiles, highlighting a “two-speed” continent.21

5.1. Macro-Regional Trade Performance (2024 Analysis)

  • North Africa: This is the continent’s largest regional economy.47 Its profile is dominated by its role as an importer, accounting for 43% of Africa’s total agricultural imports and holding the highest agricultural imports-to-GDP ratio at 5.4%.21 This is driven by its large population and close proximity to European and Middle Eastern markets.47 Simultaneously, it is a highly competitive, high-value exporter (e.g., Moroccan tomatoes 48), boasting the highest export growth rate on the continent at 6.0%.47
  • West Africa: As the second-largest economy 47, West Africa has the highest share of global exports (1.1%) but the slowest export growth rate (2.0%).47 This profile is indicative of a mature but stagnant, low-competitiveness sector, dominated by raw commodity exports like cocoa and cotton, which face significant value-addition challenges.13
  • East Africa: This region is the most export-oriented, with the highest agricultural exports-to-GDP ratio at 3.9%.21 It is a highly dynamic market, also showing the highest import growth rate at 13.3%.47 This suggests a rapidly transforming but potentially unbalanced sector with growing import dependency.
  • Southern Africa: This region presents a more balanced profile. It is export-oriented 21 with strong export growth (5.7%) 27 but has the lowest import-to-GDP ratio at 2.1% 21, suggesting greater self-sufficiency. South Africa acts as the regional hub 49, though some analyses suggest its competitive edge is diminishing.51
  • Central Africa: This region lags significantly on all trade metrics, with an export share 10 times smaller than the other subregions.21

5.2. Commodity-Level Competitiveness: The Raw vs. Processed Divide

Africa’s trade patterns reveal a stark competitiveness failure. While intra-African trade is increasingly composed of food and manufactured goods, exports to the rest of the world remain overwhelmingly dominated by primary products.49

The cotton value chain is a clear example: a 12% global share in raw cotton exports but only 2-3% in processed goods.13 In contrast, Morocco’s position as the world’s 4th largest tomato exporter 48 and Kenya’s dynamic horticulture sector 2 demonstrate high competitiveness in niche, high-value-added segments.

This data exposes a “two-speed” Africa. Speed 1 (High Value) consists of North Africa (Morocco) and parts of East Africa (Kenya), which are competing effectively on value-added (processed goods, horticulture) and integrating with global markets.47 Speed 2 (Low Value) includes West Africa and parts of Southern Africa, which are competing on the volume of raw commodities (cocoa, cotton, maize).13 This divergence means a single continental strategy is insufficient. West Africa’s primary challenge is vertical integration (value addition), while East Africa’s is sustaining its dynamic growth while managing import dependency.

Table 4: Comparative Regional Agricultural Trade Performance (2018-2024)

RegionKey Economic/Trade MetricsPrimary ExportsKey Competitiveness Profile
North AfricaLargest regional GDP ($985.4B); Highest import/GDP (5.4%); Highest export growth (6.0%).21Tomatoes, citrus, processed foods.48High-Value Exporter / High Importer: Highly integrated with Europe; strong in value-added horticulture.
West Africa2nd largest GDP ($768.3B); Highest export share (1.1%); Slowest export growth (2.0%).47Cocoa, cotton, cashew (raw).13High-Volume, Low-Value Exporter: Mature but stagnant, dominated by raw commodities with low value capture.
East AfricaHighest export/GDP (3.9%); Highest import growth (13.3%).21Horticulture, coffee, tea.2Dynamic & Export-Oriented: Rapidly transforming but with rising import dependency.
Southern AfricaLowest import/GDP (2.1%); Strong export growth (5.7%).21Maize, fruits, wine, wool.48Balanced Regional Hub: More self-sufficient; anchored by South Africa, but regional hub’s edge is diminishing.51

Section 6: National Champions: Policy Case Studies in Transformation

While continental trends are mixed, several “national champions” provide a clear blueprint for successful transformation. These successes are not a result of broad market liberalization alone, but of targeted, deliberate industrial policy.

6.1. Rwanda: The PSTA 4 Strategy for Market-Led Commercialization

  • Policy: Rwanda’s fourth Strategic Plan for Agricultural Transformation (PSTA 4), which ran from 2018-2024.52
  • Objective: The policy marked a deliberate shift from a subsistence-based sector to a “knowledge-based value creating sector,” with a strong focus on private investment.53 The program was structured around (1) Policy Reform, (2) Enabling Commercialization, and (3) Delivering Value Chain Services.52
  • Measurable Results: The outcomes were tangible and dramatic. The share of farmers using inorganic fertilizers skyrocketed from 22% in 2018 to 56% in 2023.55 High-value sub-sectors, such as animal production, grew by 9% per year.55 A 2024 analysis of the program found that every $1 spent under PSTA 4 generated a $2.05 gain in GDP and contributed to lifting 1.1 million people from poverty.56

6.2. Morocco: The “Green Generation” Strategy and Agribusiness Integration

  • Policy: The “Green Generation” strategy (2020-2030), a successor to the successful Plan Maroc Vert.57
  • Objective: This policy builds on Morocco’s export success 48 by focusing on human and social capital. Its two pillars are (1) Developing a new agricultural “middle class” of 400,000 households and (2) Promoting human and social development.57
  • Mechanism: The strategy focuses on high-value agriculture, supporting young entrepreneurs, and, crucially, increasing the “economic inclusion of youth” and the “marketing efficiency and environmental sustainability” of its advanced agri-food value chains.59 This is a policy of deepening an already competitive sector.

6.3. Côte d’Ivoire: A Deliberate Strategy for Value Addition

  • Policy: A state-driven industrial policy to capture value from the commodities it dominates as a raw producer (namely cocoa and cashew).61
  • Mechanism: The government provides preferential treatment and allocates raw supply to Ivorian processing companies 62 while investing heavily in dedicated agro-industrial zones to support them.63
  • Measurable Results (Cashew): The policy has been transformative. Domestic cashew processing capacity exploded from just 68,515 tons in 2015 to 350,000 tons in 2024.63 This created over 18,321 direct jobs (66% held by women) and was supported by the construction of 1,800km of access roads.63
  • Measurable Results (Cocoa): The government is applying the same successful model to its cocoa sector, with plans to increase domestic grinding capacity to 50% of its massive output.64

6.4. Ethiopia & Nigeria: The High-Potential Giants (A Differentiated Approach)

Ethiopia and Nigeria are identified as holding 60% of the continent’s total agricultural potential, but their starting points are so different that they require completely differentiated strategies.26

  • Ethiopia: Characterized by high government involvement, high fertilizer application (58 kg/ha), and high hybrid maize adoption (40%). Its path is state-led and input-intensive.26
  • Nigeria: Characterized by moderate government involvement but abysmal input adoption, with fertilizer use at only 14 kg/ha and hybrid maize at <3%.26 Its path must first focus on fixing basic input chains and market access, which are identified as key challenges.2

These case studies reveal a “Policy-Processing-Jobs” nexus. Success is driven by: (1) Deliberate Policy (e.g., PSTA 4, Green Generation); (2) Targeted Investment into specific value chains (e.g., Ivorian cashews 63) or enablers (e.g., Rwandan fertilizer 55); which leads to (3) Measurable Outcomes in processing capacity 63, input adoption 55, and job creation.63

Section 7: The Great Enabler: AfCFTA and the New Intra-African Market

7.1. State of Play: From Ratification to Commercial Trading (2024-2025)

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is no longer a theoretical agreement. As of October 2024, the Guided Trade Initiative (GTI)—which pilots trade under AfCFTA rules—has expanded to include 37 of the 54 member countries.65 This marks the beginning of “commercially-meaningful trading”.65 A prime example of this new era is South Africa’s inaugural shipment to Kenya under the AfCFTA, which included agricultural products.65

On May 30, 2024, the AfCFTA marked its fifth anniversary, triggering a formal review process to assess its progress and address challenges.66 A joint assessment by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the African Union Commission (AUC) on the AfCFTA’s specific economic effects on the agri-food system is currently being finalized.67

7.2. The Core Objective: A Catalyst for Agro-Processing and Value Addition

The AfCFTA is the central pillar of Africa’s new industrial strategy. Its explicit purpose is to drive value addition 68 and catalyze the development of regional value chains (RVCs).69 This is a deliberate attempt to break the colonial economic model of being a supplier of raw materials to the world.72

Recent reports from the World Economic Forum (WEF) and Afreximbank state the AfCFTA will “turbocharge” agriculture by creating massive new investment opportunities in agro-processing.73 Afreximbank’s 2024 Trade Report highlights that the agreement will enable the “domestication of value addition”.75 This new, unified market is projected by the AfDB to allow Africa’s food and agriculture market to grow from $280 billion in 2023 to $1 trillion by 2030.76 Some projections show a potential 574% increase in intra-African agricultural trade alone.76

7.3. Integrating Smallholders and Addressing Non-Tariff Barriers

The stated goal of this new market is to bring Africa’s 80%—its smallholder farmers—into these new, wider supply chains.73 However, the primary obstacle to this is not tariffs, but the complex web of non-tariff barriers (NTBs), especially misaligned and poorly implemented sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) standards.77

This reveals a critical tension. While institutions like the WEF and AfDB champion the AfCFTA as an engine for smallholder inclusion, other analyses raise alarms.78 These critiques warn that the AfCFTA’s Intellectual Property (IPR) protocols, which push for restrictive seed laws (like UPOV 1991), and the subsequent influx of corporate-controlled seeds could threaten smallholder seed sovereignty and food security, effectively excluding them from the new market.78

To prevent this, policy implementation must be nuanced. Recommendations include not only accelerating tariff removal but also differentiating NTB and SPS compliance burdens for small and micro enterprises.77 This must be paired with public investment in digital trade processes 76 and continent-wide payment systems like the Pan-African Payments and Settlement System (PAPSS).79

The AfCFTA’s true power is not the passive opportunity of a larger market, but the active pressure it creates for domestic reform. To export processed goods to a neighbor under the AfCFTA, a country must harmonize its regulations.72 It cannot supply a regional value chain if its SPS standards are not aligned 77 or if its post-harvest losses are 50% due to poor roads.29 The AfCFTA, therefore, acts as a “forcing function” that compels governments to finally make the politically difficult domestic investments in infrastructure, regulatory harmonization, and value addition—as modeled by the national champions in Section 6—that are the prerequisites for competitiveness.

Section 8: The Policy Compass (2026-2035): The Kampala Declaration and the Post-Malabo Agenda

8.1. From Malabo to Kampala: A Strategic Shift to Agri-Food Systems

In January 2025, in Kampala, Uganda, the African Union (AU) Heads of State and Government adopted the continent’s new 10-year agricultural strategy (2026-2035).80 This new framework, known as the Kampala Declaration, is the official successor to the 2014 Malabo Declaration.

The most significant change in this new strategy is the formal shift in terminology and approach. The new Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) strategy and Kampala Declaration affirm a critical pivot from a narrow “agriculture-led” approach to a comprehensive “agrifood systems approach”.81 This shift is not merely semantic; it aligns the AU’s continental policy framework with the value-chain-centric, systems-level view of partners like the World Bank 6 and the AfDB.17

8.2. Analysis of the New CAADP Strategy (2026-2035): Objectives and Targets

The new CAADP strategy is built on Six Strategic Objectives 84:

  1. Boosting sustainable production
  2. Promoting agro-industrialization and trade
  3. Scaling up investments
  4. Improving food and nutrition security
  5. Ensuring equitable livelihoods
  6. Strengthening governance and resilience

What truly differentiates the Kampala Declaration from its Malabo predecessor is its commitment to accountability through a set of “clearly defined, time-bound targets” to be achieved by 2035.84 These targets (see Table 6) represent the continent’s new “theory of change” 82 and provide a quantitative framework against which all future competitiveness efforts will be judged.

These two continental frameworks—the CAADP Kampala Declaration and the AfCFTA—which were both operationalized in the 2024-2025 period, are not parallel. They are two interlocking pillars of a single, unified strategy for transformation.

The Kampala Declaration (CAADP) 84 sets the production and policy goals. The AfCFTA 69 provides the market mechanism and the trade-led incentive to achieve them. For example, it will be impossible to achieve the new CAADP target to “triple intra-African agricultural trade” 81 without the AfCFTA’s tariff removal and trade facilitation.85 Likewise, the CAADP target to “raise locally processed food to 35% of agrifood GDP” 84 is entirely dependent on the new agro-processing investments that the AfCFTA is designed to unlock.73

Table 6: The Kampala Declaration (CAADP 2026-2035) Strategic Targets

Target AreaSpecific 2035 TargetSource(s)
ProductionIncrease agrifood system output by 45%.82
TradeTriple intra-African agrifood trade.81
ProcessingRaise locally processed food to 35% of agrifood GDP.84
Post-Harvest LossHalve post-harvest losses.84
PovertyReduce extreme poverty by 50%.84
NutritionReduce all forms of malnutrition by 25%; Ensure 60% of the population can afford a healthy diet.84
InclusionEnsure women, youth, and marginalized groups make up at least 30% of those empowered across agrifood value chains.84
EnvironmentBring 30% of agricultural land under sustainable management.84

Section 9: Strategic Outlook and Policy Recommendations (2025-2035)

9.1. Future Outlook: The “Twin Transition” in African Agriculture

The future of African agricultural competitiveness from 2025 to 2035 will be defined by the continent’s ability to navigate a “Twin Transition.”

  1. The Digital Transition: This is no longer optional. As emphasized by the AU Commissioner for Agriculture, the future involves “integrating modern technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), the Internet of Things (IoT), and digital platforms into traditional farming systems”.86 The 2025 market trends show this revolution is already underway in AI-driven crop management 40, smart tractors 40, and digital finance.40 This transition is the how—it is the practical mechanism to solve the core problems of heterogeneity and inefficiency.
  2. The Green Transition: Competitiveness will become synonymous with sustainability. This includes the adoption of climate-smart agriculture 2, “working with nature” 87, and meeting the new, binding Kampala Declaration target to bring 30% of all agricultural land under sustainable management by 2035.84

9.2. Strategic Policy Recommendations

Based on this report’s analysis, achieving the ambitious targets set in Kampala requires a holistic, systems-level approach.88

For National Governments:

  1. Prioritize Domesticating the “Twin Pillars”: African governments must stop treating CAADP and the AfCFTA as separate bureaucratic exercises. National agricultural investment plans (like South Africa’s Agricultural Master Plan, AAMP 90) must be redesigned to explicitly integrate CAADP’s 35% processing target 84 with the AfCFTA’s trade facilitation rules and regulatory harmonization.85 The targeted, value-chain-specific industrial policies of Rwanda 56 and Côte d’Ivoire 63 should be used as blueprints.
  2. Solve the Land Tenure Problem: This is the absolute sine qua non for private investment. As demonstrated by extensive research, without secure land rights, farmers will not make the long-term, on-farm investments in technology, soil health, and conservation that are the foundation of transformation.36
  3. Invest in “Silver Buckshot,” Not “Silver Bullets”: The era of one-size-fits-all input subsidies must end. The core constraint to adoption is heterogeneity.28 Therefore, public investment should be redirected to funding the enablers of localized, private-sector-led solutions. This means prioritizing investment in rural digital infrastructure 45, data systems, and, most importantly, human capital (digital and agricultural literacy) 45 to allow the new agri-tech ecosystem to function.

For Development Finance Institutions (DFIs), Investors, and Development Partners:

  1. Scale Blended Finance for the “Missing Middle”: The greatest barrier to value addition is the lack of capital for the “missing middle”—the aggregators, cold-storage operators, logisticians, and small-scale processors.1 Blended finance models 35 must be scaled aggressively to de-risk private investment specifically in this critical mid-stream segment of the value chain.
  2. Support SME Compliance with AfCFTA: The greatest risk of the AfCFTA is the exclusion of smallholders and SMEs due to an inability to meet new standards.78 A primary recommendation is to fund and implement simplified SPS certification regimes and capacity-building programs, differentiated by enterprise size, to help small and micro enterprises meet regional standards and participate in the new value chains.77
  3. Finance the Full “Stack”: To maximize impact, funding must move away from siloed projects. The most effective interventions will be those that integrate the full transformation “stack”: linking digital platforms 42 with innovative financing models 40 and connecting them directly to agro-processing hubs.17 This integrated, systems-level approach is the only way to move African agriculture from a story of potential to one of performance.

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