Tanzania Prepares for the 2024/2025 Rainy Season: A Blueprint for Agricultural Resilience

The Tanzanian government has released a comprehensive forecast for the 2024/2025 rainy season through the Ministry of Agriculture and the Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA), signalling both opportunities and challenges for the agricultural sector. This forecast, issued by the Department of Crop Marketing and Food Security Coordination, offers insights on rainfall patterns, expected impacts on farming, and actionable strategies for stakeholders to safeguard food security and boost productivity.

The report, titled “Seasonal Rainfall Forecast and Implications for Agricultural Activities (November 2024 – April 2025),” outlines varying rainfall distributions across the country’s unimodal regions, which receive one primary rainy season annually. These areas include the Western Zone (Tabora, Katavi, Kigoma), Central Zone (Dodoma, Singida), Southern Highlands (Rukwa, Mbeya, Njombe, Iringa), and southern coastal regions like Lindi, Mtwara, and Ruvuma​.

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What to Expect: Rainfall Projections by Region

The 2024/2025 rainy season is projected to begin in late October in Kigoma and spread to other regions in November, with most areas receiving more rainfall in the latter half of the season, between February and April 2025. Key regional highlights include:

1. Western Zone (Tabora, Katavi, Kigoma): Rainfall is expected to be average to below average, starting in late October and concluding in early May 2025.
2. Central Zone (Dodoma, Singida): Average to below-average rainfall is anticipated, beginning in mid-November and tapering off in late April.
3. Southern Highlands (Mbeya, Njombe, Iringa, Rukwa, Songwe): Mixed rainfall patterns are forecasted, with above-average rains in Njombe and southern Mbeya, but below-average rainfall in Songwe and northern Mbeya.
4. Southern Coastal and Southern Regions (Lindi, Mtwara, Ruvuma): These regions are set to receive average to above-average rainfall, although localized areas in eastern Lindi and northern Ruvuma may face below-average rains​.

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The Dual Impact: Opportunities and Risks

The government’s report emphasizes that while the forecast presents opportunities for growth, it also highlights potential risks that require urgent attention.

Positive Outcomes:

• Improved Soil Moisture: Favorable rainfall in some regions will enhance soil moisture, boosting crop productivity for staples like maize, rice, and millet.
• Water Availability: Above-average rains provide opportunities for water harvesting and irrigation expansion, ensuring better resource management during dry spells.
• Pest and Disease Control: Wetter conditions may limit the spread of pests and certain crop diseases, improving overall yields.
• Diverse Cropping Options: Regions anticipating higher rainfall can diversify into horticultural crops, legumes, and other high-value produce​.

Challenges to Overcome:

• Flooding: Excess rainfall in certain areas poses risks of localized flooding, which can destroy crops, displace communities, and damage agricultural infrastructure.
• Soil Erosion: Heavy downpours may lead to significant soil erosion, particularly in hilly regions, reducing long-term agricultural viability.
• Crop Diseases: Prolonged wet conditions could encourage fungal diseases like blight, threatening crop health and farmer incomes.
• Delayed Farming Cycles: In areas with below-average rainfall, farmers may face delays in planting and harvesting, disrupting food supply chains​.

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Strategic Recommendations for Stakeholders

The government has outlined detailed strategies tailored to farmers, extension officers, and the wider agricultural sector to mitigate risks and capitalize on opportunities.

Farmers’ Playbook:

1. Early Preparations: Farmers should prepare their fields in advance, secure necessary inputs like drought-resistant seeds, and plant in alignment with expected rainfall patterns.
2. Crop Selection: Short-maturity crops such as millet and sunflower are recommended in drier regions, while wetter areas are ideal for water-intensive crops like rice and potatoes.
3. Soil and Water Management: Employing soil conservation practices like terracing, mulching, and water harvesting will be crucial in maintaining productivity.
4. Collaborative Learning: Farmers are urged to stay connected with extension officers for advice on pest control, disease management, and adopting climate-smart agricultural techniques​.

Role of Extension Officers:

1. Localized Crop Calendars: Developing crop calendars that align with regional rainfall forecasts will guide farmers in planning their planting and harvesting cycles.
2. Technology Dissemination: Collaborating with research institutions to introduce innovative technologies, such as pest-resistant seed varieties and sustainable irrigation systems.
3. Advisory Services: Providing consistent guidance on climate-resilient farming practices will help farmers navigate seasonal uncertainties​.

Community Engagement:

The report calls on communities to take proactive steps toward ensuring food security, including conserving food stocks, avoiding wastage, and diversifying income through activities like poultry farming, aquaculture, and horticulture​.

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Crop Recommendations by Region

To maximize yields, the government has provided region-specific crop recommendations:

• Western Zone (Tabora, Kigoma, Katavi): Maize, sorghum, cassava, groundnuts, and millet.
• Central Zone (Dodoma, Singida): Drought-resistant crops like millet, sunflower, and pigeon peas are ideal.
• Southern Highlands (Mbeya, Njombe, Iringa): Rice, potatoes, wheat, and legumes due to favorable rainfall.
• Southern Regions (Lindi, Mtwara, Ruvuma): Cassava, maize, horticultural produce, and avocados​.

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Policy and Infrastructure Support

The Ministry of Agriculture is committed to providing a robust support framework to ensure farmers’ success this season. Measures include:

1. Subsidized Inputs: Farmers will have access to affordable seeds and fertilizers, reducing barriers to entry for smallholder farmers.
2. Irrigation Expansion: Ongoing projects aim to increase irrigated farmland, mitigating the reliance on erratic rainfall patterns.
3. Training Programs: Empowering farmers with knowledge of climate-smart practices and sustainable agriculture.
4. Market Support: Strengthening market systems, including warehouse receipt systems and crop insurance schemes, to protect farmers from price fluctuations and post-harvest losses​.

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A Call to Action

As the rainy season approaches, the government urges all stakeholders to embrace collaborative and innovative approaches to mitigate risks and harness the season’s potential. Farmers must follow real-time weather updates and communicate closely with agricultural extension officers for region-specific advice.

With the right strategies and support, Tanzania can ensure food security and build a more resilient agricultural sector. This season offers a unique opportunity to align national goals with sustainable practices, empower farmers, and foster rural economic growth.

Source:
Department of Crop Marketing and Food Security Coordination, Ministry of Agriculture, Tanzania (November 2024). Seasonal Rainfall Forecast and Agricultural Recommendations​.