KENYA TURNS TO TANZANIA AS MAIZE SHORTAGE DRIVES UNGA PRICES TO 14-MONTH HIGH

By JUMA MSAFIRI
NAIROBI/DODOMA

Cross-border demand surges amid millers’ scramble for grain and government efforts to ease price pressure

Tanzania has become Kenya’s unexpected saviour in the wake of soaring maize flour prices, as Kenyan millers intensify cross-border sourcing in response to thinning local grain stocks. With fortified maize flour prices hitting a 14-month high in April, Kenya is looking southward for solutions, driving up demand for Tanzanian maize and igniting new conversations on regional food security.

Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) reveals that the average retail price of a two-kilogramme packet of fortified maize flour rose to KSh169.41 in April, up from KSh165.05 in March. This latest increment represents a 2.64 percent increase and marks the highest price point since February 2024, when the cost stood at KSh172.75. Compared to last October, households are now spending KSh24.77 more—an increase of 17.13 percent—to purchase the same quantity of unga, Kenya’s most consumed staple.

Behind the surge lies a growing tug-of-war between human food processors and animal feed manufacturers, both vying for limited white maize stocks. According to Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe, the intense competition has driven up the price of a 90-kilogramme bag of maize by 26 percent in just three months. This has forced the government to act quickly.

In early April, Kagwe announced the duty-free importation of 5.5 million bags of yellow maize intended exclusively for the animal feed sector. The move is designed to ease the strain on white maize supplies, allowing food processors to access grain at more sustainable prices and stabilise retail flour costs. “With maize prices continuing to rise, the cost of flour is expected to increase proportionally,” Kagwe warned in a press statement.

Tanzania Steps into the Gap

As local stocks dwindle, Kenya’s millers have increasingly turned to neighbouring Tanzania, where grain supplies remain relatively stable. Border towns like Namanga, Holili, and Isebania are seeing intensified truck traffic as both large-scale millers and independent traders rush to secure Tanzanian maize. This unexpected boom in cross-border trade has elevated the strategic role of Tanzanian maize in Kenya’s food system.

“Tanzania has become the fallback plan for many Kenyan millers,” said a Nairobi-based grain trader. “Its proximity, lower logistics costs, and good quality grain have made it the go-to source, especially as pressure on white maize escalates.”

The surge in demand is having ripple effects. Prices in Tanzania are beginning to edge upward as export volumes rise, and stakeholders are urging the Tanzanian government to monitor outflows closely to protect domestic supply. If unchecked, local prices could follow Kenya’s trajectory, straining household budgets and undermining food affordability.

A Strategic Policy Shift

The Kenyan government’s decision to permit yellow maize imports is part of a broader strategy to separate supply chains for animal feed and human consumption. “The objective is to reduce pressure on local white maize stocks by shifting animal feed millers to yellow maize,” said Kagwe. “This will allow millers focused on human consumption to access available maize at fairer prices, ultimately leading to reduced production costs and more stable unga prices for consumers.”

The initiative also aligns with President William Ruto’s larger agricultural vision. Speaking during Labour Day celebrations in Nairobi, Ruto highlighted the impact of recent policy reforms. “The reduction of fertiliser prices has led to a 40 percent surge in maize production and boosted farmers’ earnings,” he noted, while reaffirming his administration’s commitment to making farming profitable, stabilising farmer incomes, and securing national food supplies.

Still, many in the sector remain sceptical. Despite the reported 40 percent jump in maize output, the sharp rise in unga prices signals a deeper structural issue—inefficiencies in distribution, storage, and market coordination. The 2022 drought, described as the worst in four decades, left a lasting dent in grain reserves. Although the government waived import duties to facilitate recovery, the full impact of the shock is still being felt today.

Implications for Regional Trade

The unfolding crisis has cast Tanzania in a pivotal role, not just as a stopgap supplier but as a critical player in East Africa’s food trade architecture. With Kenya’s domestic market under strain, Tanzania’s export potential is in the spotlight. If managed strategically, this could spur investment in storage, transport infrastructure, and trade facilitation.

However, experts caution that balancing export gains with national food security will require delicate policymaking. “It’s a great opportunity for Tanzanian farmers and exporters,” said a policy analyst in Dodoma, “but it must not come at the expense of local food stability.”

As Kenya navigates this delicate moment, its dependency on Tanzanian maize is likely to persist in the near term. While policy interventions such as yellow maize imports and fertiliser subsidies are steps in the right direction, sustainable stability will demand deeper structural reforms—from boosting domestic productivity to modernising grain supply chains.

For Tanzania, the spotlight is both an opportunity and a responsibility. Its role in ensuring regional food security is growing, and with it comes the need for clear export policies and investment in agri-trade systems.

One thing is clear: maize is no longer just a local staple—it’s becoming a regional currency of survival.